Bitcoin's Crypto Correction Risk: Can $100K Hold Before a Potential Pullback?

Bitcoin’s spectacular rally has captivated the market, with the world’s leading cryptocurrency surging past $98,000 and fueling bullish sentiment across the crypto space. Yet beneath the celebratory headlines, technical indicators are flashing amber warnings. A fractal analysis comparing Bitcoin’s current trajectory to its 2021 pattern suggests a crypto correction of up to 40% could unfold once the asset reaches the symbolically crucial $100,000 threshold.

The Bullish Case Remains Compelling for 2025

The momentum behind Bitcoin seems undeniable. With President-elect Donald Trump’s administration signaling openness to crypto-friendly policies—including potential White House positions dedicated to cryptocurrency oversight—institutional appetite continues to strengthen. Bernstein Research analysts forecast Bitcoin could soar to $200,000 by year-end 2025, driven by anticipated regulatory clarity, ETF inflows, and strategic accumulation by major corporations.

The proposed national Bitcoin reserve initiative adds another layer of fundamental support. Large corporations like MicroStrategy are aggressively expanding their Bitcoin holdings through multi-billion dollar commitments over the coming years. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s historical post-halving performance suggests further upside potential within this cycle.

Technical Signals Paint a More Cautious Picture

However, a closer examination of Bitcoin’s weekly chart reveals troubling parallels to the 2021 market peak. The current setup displays a bearish divergence—Bitcoin’s price approaches all-time highs while its Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator shows declining strength. This divergence mirrors the 2021 pattern that preceded a devastating 77% decline.

If this crypto correction scenario plays out, Bitcoin could face resistance at the psychologically significant $100,000 level. Following such a peak, the technical target for a pullback would align with Bitcoin’s 50-week exponential moving average, situated around $60,000. This implies a potential correction exceeding 40% in 2025.

Where Does Bitcoin Actually Trade Today?

Current Bitcoin price data shows the asset at $87.95K, having reached an all-time high of $126.08K. The 24-hour momentum remains positive at +1.30%, with market capitalization holding above $1.75 trillion. This positions Bitcoin in a precarious zone—still elevated but increasingly vulnerable to technical mean reversion.

The $60,000 Support Zone: Historical Significance

The $60,000 level represents far more than just a mathematical target. It coincides with a critical ascending trendline that has consistently provided support throughout Bitcoin’s entire bull cycle. If Bitcoin undergoes the projected crypto correction, testing this trendline would likely shake out weaker participants while attracting institutional buyers seeking discounted entry points.

Historical precedent suggests such capitulation events eventually reverse sharply. If the pattern holds, Bitcoin could reignite its rally and challenge $100,000 once again before 2025 concludes, creating a scenario where both bearish and bullish predictions ultimately prove partially correct.

The Bottom Line: Vigilance Over Complacency

Bitcoin’s path forward remains uncertain. While institutional adoption and pro-crypto policy tailwinds present compelling reasons for optimism, technical indicators caution against euphoria. The next few months will likely determine whether Bitcoin accelerates through $100,000 to reach the $150,000–$200,000 targets cited by research firms, or whether a significant crypto correction materializes first. Investors should monitor both the fundamental developments and technical formations closely, as the outcome could reshape the entire 2025 narrative.