Cardano Price Prediction: Political Uncertainty Deepens Descending Channel Pressure

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Price Action Overview

ADA remains trapped inside a multi-month descending channel, with price capped below the full EMA stack. Short-term stabilization near $0.35 reflects balance, not accumulation, leaving downside risk active.

Cardano price today trades near $0.36 after briefly bouncing from the lower boundary of a multi-month descending channel. While the rebound offers short-term relief, the broader structure remains under pressure as ADA struggles beneath key EMAs and broader market sentiment deteriorates amid rising political uncertainty.

Daily Structure Remains Bearish Below EMA Stack

On the daily chart, Cardano continues to trade well below its major exponential moving averages. The 20-day EMA near $0.41, the 50-day EMA around $0.47, and the 100-day EMA close to $0.56 remain stacked overhead, forming a wide resistance band that has capped every recovery attempt since October.

Price is also pressing against the lower Bollinger Band near $0.35, reflecting sustained downside pressure rather than a momentum reset. While the recent candles show smaller bodies, this behavior signals stabilization, not reversal.

The broader structure remains a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, with ADA firmly pinned inside a long-term descending channel that extends from the September peak. Until price can reclaim at least the 20-day EMA, sellers retain control of the daily trend.

Descending Channel Defines Short-Term Risk

The 1-hour chart reinforces the bearish narrative. ADA continues to trade inside a clearly defined downward channel, with repeated failures along the midline and upper boundary. Each bounce has been corrective, not impulsive, confirming that buyers are defending levels rather than initiating new trend exposure.

Recent price action shows ADA attempting to base near $0.35 to $0.36, an area that has acted as short-term demand over the past week. However, price remains below the channel midpoint, leaving downside risk active if buyers fail to defend this zone.

A clean break below $0.35 would expose the channel floor near $0.34, followed by a retest of the broader daily support around $0.32.

The RSI on the 1-hour chart is hovering near the neutral 50 level, reflecting balance rather than accumulation.

MACD is sitting close to the zero line, showing that neither buyers nor sellers have control right now. The small histogram bars reflect a lack of strong momentum, meaning the market is pausing rather than pushing in either direction. This kind of balance usually comes before a sharper move, but price action has yet to show which side will take control.

Political Uncertainty Adds Narrative Pressure

Beyond charts, Cardano is facing a narrative headwind. Recent comments from Cardano leadership warning about the politicization of crypto regulation have resonated across the market. Criticism of Trump-linked crypto initiatives, including memecoin launches and discussions around a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve, highlight growing concern over regulatory unpredictability.

There are concerns that political favoritism and branding could distort markets and undermine trust. For assets like Cardano, which rely heavily on long-term credibility and developer confidence, this type of uncertainty can suppress risk appetite even when technical levels attempt to stabilize.

In the current environment, traders appear reluctant to build aggressive positions until regulatory signals become clearer.

Key Levels To Watch

Immediate resistance sits at $0.38, followed by the descending channel top near $0.40. A daily close above this zone would be the first sign that sellers are losing control.

On the downside, $0.35 remains the level buyers must defend. Losing it would open the door toward $0.32, a zone that aligns with prior demand and the lower boundary of the broader structure.