Why is the market interpreting the Japanese central bank's rate hike as a positive? The key isn't in the act of raising rates itself, but in the disappearance of two things: uncertainty and the market’s worst-case scenario scripts.

Ultimately, what the market truly fears is never the policy itself, but the unresolved suspense before it materializes. Before the Bank of Japan officially announced the move, investors' minds were filled with dark scenarios—will the yen skyrocket? Will carry trades collapse en masse? Will global liquidity be drained? These "possibilities" alone are enough to scare funds away from taking action.

What is the reality? The situation is actually much more moderate. The rate hike is limited in scope, the central bank remains cautious, and has even explicitly stated that there will be no series of aggressive rate increases. This effectively tells the market: don’t worry, this isn’t the start of a tightening cycle, just a symbolic exit from an ultra-loose stance. Once the suspense is gone, funds are actually more willing to move.

Looking at specific market signals, this "rate hike" actually conveys three key messages. First, the yen is not out of control, indicating that the carry trade system remains intact; second, U.S. Treasury yields haven't surged significantly, suggesting global liquidity hasn't been drained on a large scale; third, risk assets have stabilized or even rebounded, indicating that money isn't fleeing the market en masse. In trading terms, this is a classic case of "sell expectations, buy reality"—when suspense turns into reality and the reality isn’t so bad, a reversal follows.

In the crypto space, this logic is actually more favorable for risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum in the medium term. Japan’s rate hike doesn’t mean a synchronized tightening globally; the Fed’s rate cut expectations are still in place, and control of liquidity remains in the dollar system. After short-term volatility, all risk assets will need to be re-priced, and the market will start to feel confident in discussing "the next phase" of development. You’ll find that after the rate hike is confirmed, market sentiment becomes even more relaxed than before the hike.

Ultimately, the rate hike by the Bank of Japan itself isn’t necessarily a positive. But the combination of a moderate hike plus the complete clearing of expectations constitutes a positive signal. The real danger has never been the events that have already happened, but the risks still hanging overhead that haven't yet materialized. Once those risks materialize, the market will adopt a new pricing logic.