#美国就业数据表现强劲超出预期 The Bank of Japan's rate hike this time to 0.75% has sparked market speculation that further actions may follow. For cryptocurrencies, the impact essentially follows these three logical layers.

**In the coming weeks**
The rate hike has already been largely digested, and the policy statement doesn't sound particularly hawkish; instead, it feels somewhat lukewarm. So, once the rate hike is implemented, it actually triggers a "landing" rebound. Bitcoin, which dipped to a daily low of $84,418, has rebounded nearly 4,000 points. The key point is that Japan's real interest rate is still negative, and hasn't reached the level that would trigger large-scale arbitrage liquidations, so the market still has some room for short-term recovery.

**In the next one or two months**
This is the real test. The scale of carry trades built up from Japan's long-term zero interest rate policy is not small—around 4 to 5 trillion USD. These low-cost yen have been pouring into cryptocurrencies. Now that financing costs are rising and expectations of further rate hikes remain, the arbitrage space begins to shrink. Will investors sell off their crypto assets to exchange for cash and pay off debts? Most likely. And this isn't just an issue for one or two people; it's a collective movement, with selling pressure mounting.

What's more painful is that these carry trades often involve 3 to 5 times leverage. When margin pressure mounts, forced liquidations trigger chain reactions, and a stampede effect can happen in minutes. History offers lessons: during Japan's previous rate hikes, Bitcoin experienced significant drops—20% to 30% declines are not uncommon. The risk of high-leverage crypto contract liquidations will definitely increase substantially this time.

**The real turning point**
If Japan firmly continues on the rate hike path, global liquidity will enter a "chronic bleeding" mode. As a high-risk asset, cryptocurrencies will suffer as risk appetite declines, with many institutional investors continuing to reduce holdings. The entire valuation system will undergo a fundamental reshuffle due to the shift in capital flows from global risk assets. In the short term, the market must endure the pain of deleveraging before finding a new pricing equilibrium. The impact of this liquidity withdrawal will likely weigh on the market for 3 to 6 months.

However, there's a variable— the Fed's stance. If the Federal Reserve accelerates its rate cuts, it might partially offset the impact of Japan's rate hikes and give the crypto market some breathing room. The future trend of $BTC ultimately depends on the game between these two central banks.