#BTC资金流动性 Last night, when the US November CPI data was released, it directly triggered a market surge.

Let's look at the specific numbers: Overall CPI increased by 2.7% year-over-year, and core CPI rose by 2.6% year-over-year. Both figures are well below market expectations of 3.1% and 3.0%, and are the lowest levels since early 2021. Housing inflation has significantly cooled down, and the momentum of price increases for goods and services is also waning. The previously "stubborn" inflation components are finally showing signs of loosening.

At the moment the data was released, the market's probability of a rate cut by March 2026 jumped from 54% to 60%. No wonder there was a sharp rally—this reflects market expectations that the Federal Reserve might act sooner.

But there's a caveat. The US experienced a government shutdown last month, and October data is completely missing, which prevents continuous monthly comparison and raises concerns about data distortion. So, while optimism was sparked, it only lasted until midnight, followed by a sharp decline.

In simple terms, this CPI report is like a strong shot of adrenaline, indeed shifting short-term market sentiment and opening up imagination for rate cuts in the first half of 2026. But it’s not conclusive evidence.

The next question is: Is this cooling just a temporary rebound, or is a real trend beginning? The key depends on subsequent data, especially the December CPI to be released in January 2026—that will be the real test. Until then, the market may remain cautious, and the Fed is unlikely to change its policy stance based on a noisy data report. The performance of $BTC, $ETH, $BNB and other mainstream cryptocurrencies ultimately depends on whether the fundamentals can stay solid.