#美国就业数据表现强劲超出预期 Last night, as the US November CPI data was released, the market instantly exploded.

Speaking of which, the November CPI year-over-year increase was only 2.7%, and the core CPI was just 2.6%, both below market expectations of 3.1% and 3.0%. This is the lowest level since early 2021—sounds like the hope for a rate cut is coming? For a moment, the market's probability estimate for a rate cut in March 2026 jumped from 54% directly to 60%, which is why there was that wild celebration last night.

But here’s the problem. The US government had a direct shutdown in October, resulting in a complete lack of data for that month, which caused distortion in the data. Without continuous monthly comparisons, this is also why there was a subsequent midnight plunge—market calm down and think: Is this data reliable?

However, looking at the details, the "stubborn" projects driving inflation are indeed loosening. Housing inflation has significantly cooled, and the growth rate of prices for goods and services is also weakening, which at least indicates that inflationary pressure is easing.

Now, the only suspense is: is this cooling just a temporary rebound, or is it a real trend reversal? The Federal Reserve certainly won't change its policy direction based on one controversial data point. The real test will come with the December CPI data released in January 2026. Until then, the market’s optimistic sentiment can only remain on hold.

For mainstream cryptocurrencies like $BTC, $ETH, and $BNB, the Fed’s moves are always the biggest variable. The expectation of a rate cut is rising, but certainty still needs time to be verified.