Is there still a chance for year-end market performance? Historical stock market data shows you how likely it is.

【BlockBeats】December market trends have become a hot topic in the trading circle recently. The S&P 500 rebounded by 0.8% last Thursday, breaking a four-day losing streak, although its overall performance in December remains relatively weak. But this doesn’t stop everyone from looking forward to the “Christmas rally” at the end of the year.

Looking back at historical data, the numbers are quite interesting. According to Castle Securities, since 1928, the probability that the S&P 500 rises in the last two weeks of December has been as high as 75%, with an average increase of about 1.3% each time. This ratio is indeed worth pondering.

Goldman Sachs’ trading team also shared their judgment. Analysts like Gail Hafif believe that unless the market encounters a major shock, this seasonal window of opportunity combined with relatively favorable positioning makes it hard to be blocked. They admit that while a sharp, one-sided surge isn’t guaranteed, there is indeed room for upward movement from now until the end of the year. Market participants at this point seem to be betting on a warm end to the year.