Why Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle Broke Down in 2025 and What's Replacing It

Source: CoinEdition Original Title: Why Bitcoin’s Old Cycle Timing Failed in 2025 and What Replaced It Original Link: https://coinedition.com/why-bitcoins-old-cycle-timing-failed-in-2025-and-what-replaced-it/

Key Points

• Bitcoin is deviating from the historical 4-year cycle pattern.
• The pattern was powered by “memetic consensus.”
• Institutional investors may be influencing a new behavioral pattern for Bitcoin.

The Breakdown of Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle

A cryptocurrency analyst believes that Bitcoin is departing from the traditional 4-year cycle into a trend that is yet to be determined.

The analyst highlighted Bitcoin’s past behavior, explaining the concept behind the 4-year cycle, which is currently undergoing disruption. The original catalyst was the halving mechanism, which served as the initial metronome, but the 4-year cycle became something more than just an economic principle.

From Bitcoin Halving to “Memetic Consensus”

Bitcoin’s 4-year behavioral pattern originated from the regular Bitcoin halving, which occurs every four years. In the early stages, analysts focused on the economic principle of supply and demand to explain why the cryptocurrency’s price surged around the halving events.

However, the analyst believes a certain population of the Bitcoin community capitalized on that principle to build a “memetic consensus” that drove the 4-year cycle idea.

Understanding Memetic Consensus

The analyst describes memetic consensus as a group of traders forming an “implicit agreement,” perhaps unconsciously, and coordinating buying and selling Bitcoin at set times. This represents a form of herd behavior that forced outsiders to participate in the system, leading to a dominant culture among traders who aligned with the idea of a 4-year routine for Bitcoin.

The Shift in Bitcoin’s Trend Pattern

With the cycle established, some participants seeking to maximize opportunities shifted their behavior by taking positions ahead of the cycle, aiming to front-run the system for maximum profit. However, such moves failed in 2025 after the disparity in behavior between traders who sold aggressively and those who did not follow the trend.

The analyst considers this divergent approach a confirmation of the breakdown in the 4-year Bitcoin cycle. The previous coordination is lacking, and another pattern may be unfolding for Bitcoin.

Institutional Investors and the New Pattern

Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle pattern was more effective before the massive influx of institutional investors via ETFs and other related products. The influence of this category of investors may have neutralized the “memetic consensus” highlighted by the analyst, potentially setting the tone for a new pattern that retail traders will have to align with.