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Institutional Accumulation and Liquidity Shift — Market Bottom Signals Are Emerging

Recently, an interesting phenomenon has been observed: when market sentiment hits rock bottom, some key signals are quietly appearing. There are two corroborating clues that may be worth paying close attention to.

**Signal One: Institutions Are Putting Real Money into Low Positions**

The data is clear — BlackRock has accumulated over 295,000 BTC, and Fidelity’s holdings exceed 170,000 BTC. Just in the past day, the US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $860 million. This is not just waiting on the sidelines; it’s a vote with real money.

The key point is that these funds are not flowing into exchanges but are moving into self-custody wallets. Exchange BTC reserves are continuously decreasing, and this phenomenon of "funds leaving the market" has historically been a typical precursor to major market moves. Simply put: chips are shifting from retail investors to institutions.

**Signal Two: The Macro Liquidity Turning Point**

Looking at the broader context: the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT) has ended, and a new liquidity injection plan has begun — adding hundreds of billions of dollars monthly. This shift is not accidental; it is supported by clear policy expectations.

When liquidity shifts from contraction to expansion, risk assets tend to react first. Historical data repeatedly shows that liquidity turning points often correspond to the market’s cyclical bottom. And right now, multiple signals are pointing to this turning point simultaneously.

**Convergence of the Two Clues**

On one side, institutions are continuously accumulating at low levels; on the other, global liquidity is about to turn to easing. The Fear & Greed Index has fallen to 25, a level that typically indicates a significant buying opportunity.

Of course, no one can precisely predict short-term rises or falls. But from a cyclical perspective, the simultaneous appearance of extreme fear and institutional accumulation often points in one direction: a bottom is forming.

What’s your take on this situation?