#大户持仓动态 Bitcoin's performance over the past 10 hours is worth noting—price has increased by 4.02%, but the story behind it is more complex.

From a bottom of $84,483.80 up to $87,855.91, this rally didn't come out of nowhere. The most direct reason is the continuous influx of institutional funds. Last Wednesday, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $457 million, the strongest in the entire month. Digital data shows that major players are quietly accumulating.

Even more noteworthy are the regulatory changes. The US SEC has optimized the approval cycle for cryptocurrency ETFs to around 75 days, much faster than before. What does this increased approval efficiency mean? In the future, more compliant institutional funds will flow in steadily, which is a structural positive for BTC's long-term outlook.

From a market positioning perspective, Bitcoin is gradually transitioning from a severely undervalued state to a relatively balanced stage. Historical experience tells us that this phase is usually accompanied by quiet accumulation by institutions and a more rational price discovery process.

But risks cannot be ignored. The Bank of Japan just raised interest rates to 0.75%, the highest in the past 30 years. Once a tightening cycle begins, global liquidity will tighten, and risk assets will be hit hardest. A detail worth cautioning is that the last time the Bank of Japan tightened policy, Bitcoin also experienced a significant pullback, with declines between 23% and 32%. History often repeats itself.

Even more concerning is the pressure on holdings. Currently, about 6.7 million BTC are underwater, accounting for a quarter of the supply. Long-term holders control 43% of these loss-making positions. This means that if the market continues to be pressured, there could be a wave of forced sell-offs.

Community opinions are now divided. Optimists believe that the current volatility is just normal shakeout and are optimistic about the future; pessimists worry that macro headwinds could trigger a larger decline. Both sides have data to support their views, reflecting the current market uncertainty.

Overall, $BTC and $ETH face a situation of both opportunity and risk—institutional adoption is rising, regulatory environment is improving, but macroeconomic uncertainties are also increasing. The next market direction may depend on which of these forces gives way first.