🔥The Bank of Japan just raised interest rates by 0.25%. Why didn't the market crash but instead rallied?
This move is quite interesting—Nikkei surged, the yen stabilized, and global markets collectively eased. Clearly, this is traditionally considered "bearish," yet it turned out to be the market's biggest "surprise." What's really going on?
The key points are these three:
1️⃣ It was already well understood, no shock The market had already priced in the likelihood of this rate hike to nearly full expectation, with funds already positioned in advance. This isn't a sudden shock like last year's surprise, but a storyline unfolding as planned—once the plot is confirmed, the risk is released.
2️⃣ The central bank hasn't truly tightened It looks like the nominal interest rate has risen to 0.75%, but core CPI remains above 3%—meaning real interest rates are still negative. The central bank has been emphasizing "gradual normalization," which essentially means a slow and steady adjustment, not a sudden brake.
3️⃣ Japan's economy is finally showing signs of improvement Wages are rising continuously, and inflation is sticky. This indicates Japan is genuinely shaking off three decades of deflation, entering a positive cycle of "wage increases → rising prices → further wage increases." This is the strongest support.
After the rate hike, opportunities are actually increasing:
📍 In the stock market: widening bank interest margins benefit directly, consumer and tech sectors may take off, and the Nikkei reaching new highs is not a dream.
📍 Yen movements: mild appreciation is highly likely, import costs will decrease, but there won't be a hard push to strengthen it aggressively.
📍 For the global markets: the carry trade reversal space is limited, and overall Asian assets are favorably affected.
——
The biggest suspense is resolved, and the market now has only one thought: seek growth. Which sector do you think will be the first to start? Share your real position ideas in the comments.
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SquidTeacher
· 2025-12-22 00:11
Wow, I really didn't expect this. I thought there would be a dumping before? It seems like the market had already priced it in, no wonder Nikkei is so excited.
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LuckyBearDrawer
· 2025-12-19 17:28
I've already laid some groundwork in Japan. I just saw the dip and was thinking of buying the dip, but unexpectedly, it turned around immediately haha
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PositionPhobia
· 2025-12-19 17:10
Damn, the Bank of Japan's move really broke the defense this time. It should have been like this a long time ago.
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AirdropHarvester
· 2025-12-19 17:01
Wait, so the Bank of Japan's recent move is actually easing liquidity? I thought they were really going to tighten, what a false alarm haha
#BTC资金流动性 $BTC $ZEC $UNI
🔥The Bank of Japan just raised interest rates by 0.25%. Why didn't the market crash but instead rallied?
This move is quite interesting—Nikkei surged, the yen stabilized, and global markets collectively eased. Clearly, this is traditionally considered "bearish," yet it turned out to be the market's biggest "surprise." What's really going on?
The key points are these three:
1️⃣ It was already well understood, no shock
The market had already priced in the likelihood of this rate hike to nearly full expectation, with funds already positioned in advance. This isn't a sudden shock like last year's surprise, but a storyline unfolding as planned—once the plot is confirmed, the risk is released.
2️⃣ The central bank hasn't truly tightened
It looks like the nominal interest rate has risen to 0.75%, but core CPI remains above 3%—meaning real interest rates are still negative. The central bank has been emphasizing "gradual normalization," which essentially means a slow and steady adjustment, not a sudden brake.
3️⃣ Japan's economy is finally showing signs of improvement
Wages are rising continuously, and inflation is sticky. This indicates Japan is genuinely shaking off three decades of deflation, entering a positive cycle of "wage increases → rising prices → further wage increases." This is the strongest support.
After the rate hike, opportunities are actually increasing:
📍 In the stock market: widening bank interest margins benefit directly, consumer and tech sectors may take off, and the Nikkei reaching new highs is not a dream.
📍 Yen movements: mild appreciation is highly likely, import costs will decrease, but there won't be a hard push to strengthen it aggressively.
📍 For the global markets: the carry trade reversal space is limited, and overall Asian assets are favorably affected.
——
The biggest suspense is resolved, and the market now has only one thought: seek growth. Which sector do you think will be the first to start? Share your real position ideas in the comments.