The non-farm payroll data released on Tuesday Eastern Time has caused a highly polarized market reaction. On the surface, the addition of 64,000 jobs in November exceeded expectations of 45,000, but there are hidden risks behind this "surprise."

The truth of the data is as follows: the unemployment rate suddenly surged to 4.6%, reaching a new high since September 2021. More painfully, the data delayed due to the government shutdown in October showed a loss of 105,000 jobs last month, with 162,000 government sector layoffs. By November, this trend of layoffs continued, with another 6,000 jobs cut. These fluctuations in the data do not reflect a genuine recovery in the employment market but rather a state of "low layoffs and low hiring," a kind of complacency.

Why should we pay attention to these labor market figures? Because they directly influence the Federal Reserve's policy decisions. Employment data is a core reference indicator when the Fed sets interest rates and monetary policy. And monetary policy determines the market liquidity—precisely the "key" to the volatility of crypto assets.

From another perspective, the current employment data actually signals a delicate turning point in the U.S. labor market. It is neither strong enough to support high interest rates nor weak enough to trigger a wave of rate cuts. This uncertainty is pushing the market to reprice risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The data trends in the coming weeks are likely to decide the short-term direction of major cryptocurrencies like ETH and BTC. Whether you are a long-term holder or a short-term trader, this labor market story is worth paying close attention to.