Last night, the US November non-farm payroll data was released, and the crypto community's sentiment instantly shifted — from the previous "interest rate cut expectations" to a heated discussion on "how to interpret the data." The added employment of 64,000 broke the expected 50,000, so is this good news or bad news?

First, the conclusion: this non-farm report exceeding expectations seems strong, but in reality, it is more of a "data rebound" rather than genuine economic stabilization. The impact on the crypto market is mainly emotional; the long-term trend depends on the Federal Reserve's policy direction. The probability of a rate cut in January has decreased slightly, but rate hikes are essentially off the table, and the overall direction of liquidity easing remains unchanged.

Why did the November data suddenly look good? The key lies in the comparison base. In October, due to the expiration of the federal government’s special unemployment subsidy program, a large number of civil servants left their jobs, leading to a temporary drop of 105,000 in new employment. In other words, the November rebound is more about "covering the debt" rather than a true sign of economic recovery.

Looking at the details — private sector added 69,000 jobs, which initially seems decent, but the healthcare industry absorbed 64,000 of that, and other sectors showed almost no highlights. The construction industry barely managed to turn employment in goods sectors from negative to positive, but what does that really mean? Conversely, the data for August and September was revised downward by 33,000, and over the three months, the average growth rate is still trending downward.

These details point to a reality: the US labor market appears resilient on the surface, but internally it is already weakening. Short-term data fluctuations are insufficient to change the long-term logic of the crypto market; the real variable remains the central bank’s liquidity policies.