In the early hours, the Bank of Japan made a decision—raising interest rates by 25 basis points, pushing rates to a 30-year high. Logically, this should trigger a chain reaction: stock market plunge, Bitcoin crash, leveraged longs wiped out.

But strangely, nothing happened.

BTC remains steady around $84,422, not even testing new lows. Selling pressure? Panic? No signs at all. The "black swan" that brewed for half a year landed softly, like a feather.

The root cause is simple: the real slaughter ended a week ago.

**Rate hikes are obvious, but smart money has known all along**

Expectations of rate hikes have never been a secret. So what happened earlier?

During the weekend of December 14-15, a period of thin liquidity, leveraged longs faced a series of liquidations, blood flowing in the market. Then, low CPI data was released, giving risk assets a breather, and collective panic was preemptively digested.

Now, only the final variable remains: the true choice of institutional funds after the US market opens.

**This is the real betting moment**

If they choose to take profits and exit, BTC will experience a "controlled decline." If they continue to add positions, the short camp will be heavily suppressed.

The rate hike has already landed. But the real war is just beginning.

**The only moat for retail investors in this game**

In the institutional game, what can retail investors rely on to survive?

Not accurate predictions of the central bank decision, nor guessing institutional intentions. But two things: discipline that prevents mistakes, and the confidence to never get liquidated.

Precisely these two points are the root of most people's failures. In the eye of macro storms, how heavy your position is can be blown away in an instant.