2025-12-20 02:10:36

#美国就业数据表现强劲超出预期 The Bank of Japan announced yesterday a 25 basis point rate hike, raising the interest rate to 0.75%—this was actually well anticipated, so it didn't cause much ripple. Many people originally expected this news to shake up the market, but the positive sentiment actually suppressed the atmosphere.

But the real issue lies behind the scenes. When the yen borrowing costs rise, the funding chain for those trading cryptocurrencies with low-yen interest rates tightens. Arbitrage traders face significantly higher costs, and they are likely to take profits and reduce their positions or withdraw. Historical data shows that every time Japan raises interest rates, Bitcoin usually drops 20%-30% over the next 4 to 6 weeks. This is not a low-probability event but a repeatedly validated pattern.

Currently, $BTC shows some signs of stabilization on the 4-hour chart, but the momentum remains weak. The $90,000 level is crucial—it’s both a psychological barrier and a technical resistance. Until a volume breakout and stabilization occur, market confidence cannot truly recover. In the short term, a continued weak and volatile trend is likely, with no signs of particularly strong upward movement.

Next, it depends on the Federal Reserve’s stance. If upcoming economic data are impressive and reinforce market expectations that the Fed will maintain easing policies, there is a real chance of a decent rebound in January. Conversely, if the data fall short of expectations, concerns about recession will resurface, and the rebound timeline will be pushed back.

Besides the $90,000 resistance level, the support at $83,680 must also be watched closely. The market needs genuine volume to break the current weakness.

The key is the movement of institutions. The flow of funds into spot ETFs best indicates the situation—three consecutive days of net inflows, or a single-day net inflow exceeding $500 million, usually means large institutions are re-entering the market. Once this signal appears, the rebound engine is activated.

$BTC $ETH

BTC0,27%

ETH1,03%

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SandwichVictim

· 2025-12-20 12:37

Once Japan raises interest rates, arbitrage funds have to exit. The recent decline in BTC was already anticipated... Historical patterns are there, a 20%-30% drop over 4 to 6 weeks is really not an exaggeration.

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DarkPoolWatcher

· 2025-12-20 02:40

The Japanese interest rate hike has indeed been mostly digested, and there's not much surprise. The real issue is that arbitrage funds need to move out, and that's where the pressure lies.

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defi_detective

· 2025-12-20 02:39

The recent rate hike in Japan was indeed no surprise, and it actually feels a bit relieving. However, the subsequent chain reactions are the real killers. The funds involved in yen arbitrage are about to withdraw, and this wave of decline is probably unavoidable.

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GigaBrainAnon

· 2025-12-20 02:25

The Japanese rate hike has already been priced in long ago. Now it's more about reading the institutions' reactions... Is 90,000 really that solid? It seems like we still need to wait for signals from the Federal Reserve to break the deadlock.

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MetaverseVagabond

· 2025-12-20 02:19

The Japanese rate hike has indeed been mostly absorbed by the market. Now, it all depends on whether BTC can hold the 90,000 level; otherwise, if the arbitrage positions sell off, it could drop further...

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