I recently came across a piece of news about OpenAI and feel that the entire AI industry is bubbling beneath the surface. It is said that two traders are heavily betting on OpenAI releasing a new model before December 13th. One account has a historical profit of over 450,000, and the other 730,000, with most of the profits coming from bets related to OpenAI... This makes me very curious—what information could give them such confidence?

I heard this stems from an internal "Red Code" memo at OpenAI. The CEO might be pushing the team to accelerate the reasoning model development to counter Google Gemini 3. Although the official has not confirmed this, the market is indeed hinting that some big move is coming. As a newcomer, I don’t quite understand the insider trading tactics, but it seems that the competition in the AI industry is really fierce.

I’d like to ask the experts: how does this kind of prediction market work? What information channels are traders relying on to make such large bets? Does this imply that the probability of a new model release is quite high? As a beginner, I’m a bit confused, but I’m very interested in how this event develops. Can someone help me understand?😅