🚨BREAKING

CFTC CoT (Dec 2-9 data, released Dec 19):
• Ags: Corn MM long; SRW wheat MM short
• Energy: P/M short hedging; MM long
• NatGas: Huge OI; Swap Dealers heavy short; MM long
• Electricity: MM activity again NOT minimal
• Metals: Gold MM long; Copper OR short

Compared with the prior update, grain positioning shows stability rather than escalation. Managed Money exposure in corn remains net long but without a broad expansion across the complex, while SRW wheat stays net short, reinforcing that speculative interest is still selective and contract-specific, not trend-wide. Commercial short hedging across grains remains dominant and largely unchanged.

In petroleum, the core CoT structure persists, but with no meaningful speculative acceleration. Producer/Merchant short hedging remains the anchor, while Managed Money stays net long, indicating continuation rather than fresh risk-taking. The market structure reflects maintenance of existing bets rather than new positioning pressure.

Natural gas remains the clearest outlier. Open interest stays elevated, and Swap Dealer short exposure remains extreme, showing little sign of reduction since the last report. Managed Money continues to hold net long exposure, suggesting speculative positioning remains tied to volatility and seasonality, not structural control.

Electricity positioning shows continued speculative presence, not a retreat. Managed Money exposure across key hubs remains noticeable, confirming that participation has not faded since the last release, even as commercial players continue to dominate total positioning.

In metals, gold positioning is steady, with Managed Money maintaining net long exposure but without aggressive buildup. Copper remains cautious, with Other Reportables still net short, signaling no improvement in industrial demand confidence versus the prior update.

Bottom line: since Dec 2, positioning has consolidated rather than rotated — no major reallocations, no sector flips, and no unwind of extremes. The signal is persistence, not transition.