Could Bitcoin Plunge 30% to $75,000? Market Signals Flash Mixed Warnings

Bitcoin’s recent pullback below $108,000 has sparked a crucial debate among market participants: is a deeper correction toward $75,000 in the cards? The question hinges on three shifting variables—persistent inflation concerns, fragile trader sentiment, and large-scale liquidations that have been weighing on the market since mid-August. With macroeconomic headwinds mounting and technical support levels under siege, the cryptocurrency now stands at a critical juncture.

The Macro Picture: Why Inflation Worries Won’t Disappear

The latest US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report revealed that core inflation ticked up to 2.9% year-over-year in July, marking its highest reading since February. This data point effectively dampened expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts, even though markets still assign an 87.6% probability to a 25 basis point reduction at September’s FOMC gathering.

Bitcoin’s heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic releases reflects a broader market dynamic: with risk appetite stretched thin, the largest cryptocurrency now swings more violently in response to inflation data than it did in earlier months. Last weekend’s sell-off wasn’t purely macro-driven, however. Large trader liquidations and the unwinding of leveraged positions compounded selling pressure, creating a cascade effect that pushed BTC closer to psychological support zones.

Technical Breakdown: Bollinger Bands Show Buyers Are Struggling

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin currently trades just under $108,000, hovering near the lower Bollinger Band positioned around $106,300. While this oversold reading typically signals potential bounces, the persistence of price action at these depressed levels suggests sellers maintain the upper hand. The 20-day simple moving average sits at $113,970, now functioning as a resistance barrier rather than a support floor.

For bullish momentum to return, BTC must reclaim territory above this $113,970 threshold. Until that happens, the short-term trend remains bearish. The daily chart displays a descending pattern punctuated by consecutive red candles and progressively lower highs—textbook confirmation that downside pressure continues.

Support and Resistance: A Roadmap to Deeper Losses

Understanding the technical ladder is essential for assessing downside risk:

Support levels (bottom to top):

• Immediate cushion: $106,300 (lower Bollinger Band)
• Psychological anchor: $100,000 (considered a critical line of defense by analysts)
• Secondary targets: $95,000 and then $90,000 if the $100,000 barrier cracks

Resistance levels:

• $113,970 (20-day SMA)
• $121,600 (upper Bollinger Band)

The $75,000 Scenario: What Would Trigger a 30% Crash?

A Bitcoin collapse to $75,000 would represent a 30% decline from current trading levels. For such an outcome to materialize, two conditions would need to align:

First, a macroeconomic shock—either an inflation reacceleration or an unexpected hawkish pivot from the Federal Reserve that crushes risk sentiment across all asset classes. Second, a decisive breakdown through the $100,000 psychological support, which would trigger mass liquidations and potentially expose a liquidity void.

While these tail risks exist, an immediate free-fall to $75,000 remains a lower-probability scenario. Historical patterns suggest that crypto investors typically accumulate near round-number support levels, providing a floor beneath panic selling. A correction toward $95,000–90,000 in the near term appears more probable, whereas a crash to $75,000 would require either an extended bearish macro regime or a serious disruption within cryptocurrency markets themselves.

What Happens Next: Two Events to Watch

Bitcoin’s trajectory over the coming weeks depends heavily on two catalysts:

Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) this week: Robust employment data could weigh on BTC sentiment, while weaker readings might offer temporary relief and support a modest recovery.

FOMC policy announcement on September 16–17: A dovish rate cut could energize a short-covering rally, whereas a hawkish surprise would likely accelerate the downside move and test lower support levels.

Until clarity emerges on these fronts, expect heightened volatility clustered around the $100,000 level. This psychologically significant zone will determine whether the market stabilizes or descends further into correction territory. The coming days will reveal whether bulls can defend their line in the sand.