Has The Summer Hit Formula Changed? Spotify Data Reveals A Shift From Viral Bangers To Consistent Performers

When Alex Warren’s emotional ballad “Ordinary” claimed the top spot on Spotify this summer with approximately 940 million streams, it sparked a broader conversation about what constitutes a defining summer anthem in the streaming era. While the track dominated streaming metrics and secured the No. 1 position on Billboard’s weekly Songs of the Summer chart—measured through sales, streaming activity, and radio performance combined—industry observers began questioning whether the traditional “summer smash hit” model has fundamentally transformed.

The Numbers Tell One Story, Critics Tell Another

On the surface, the data appears decisive: “Ordinary” stands as this summer’s most-streamed track, backed by substantial numbers and chart dominance. However, Billboard’s top 10 summer songs revealed a curious pattern that sparked debate among music analysts. Of the ten highest-performing tracks, only five were newly released in 2025, while legacy tracks from 2024 maintained surprisingly strong positions. Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars’ “Die with a Smile” alongside Kendrick Lamar and SZA’s “Luther” continued commanding chart real estate months after their initial release.

This persistence of older material stands in sharp contrast to 2024’s summer landscape, where nearly every top 10 entry was a fresh release that year, including standouts like Sabrina Carpenter’s “Espresso,” Kendrick Lamar’s “Not Like Us,” and Morgan Wallen with Post Malone’s “I Had Some Help.”

Why The Vibe Feels Different

Music critics have identified streaming algorithms and radio rotation practices as primary culprits in this shift. Extended chart longevity means songs occupy premium positions for extended periods, crowding out potential breakout hits. The absence of energetic, feel-good tracks that characterized 2024’s summer season has been particularly pronounced—following “Ordinary,” Billboard’s next three positions are occupied entirely by Morgan Wallen country ballads, a stark tonal departure from the upbeat energy of previous seasons.

The Guardian’s music commentary highlighted disappointing commercial performances from recent releases by Justin Bieber, The Weeknd, and Miley Cyrus, suggesting that artist pedigree no longer guarantees summer dominance. Even Sabrina Carpenter’s 2025 release “Manchild,” which reached No. 1 status, failed to replicate the cultural phenomenon her 2024 tracks achieved.

Critics and Tastemakers Diverge From Commercial Reality

Perhaps most revealing is the disconnect between commercial charts and critical consensus. Publications like The New York Times consulted industry tastemakers—ranging from established figures to emerging voices—to compile alternative “songs of the summer” lists that showed virtually zero overlap with Billboard’s data-driven rankings. The Guardian and NME similarly championed emerging artists and TikTok-driven tracks that never achieved mainstream chart penetration, suggesting critics recognize different cultural markers for success than streaming and sales metrics capture.

The Guardian’s picks included PinkPantheress’s viral sensation “Illegal,” while NME highlighted emerging pop group Katseye’s “Gnarly” and Grammy-winning collective Wet Leg’s “Catch These Fists”—tracks that generated cultural conversation despite limited traditional chart performance.

What This Means For The Industry

This fragmentation raises interesting questions about how the music industry should measure cultural impact in 2025. The streaming era has created a scenario where chart dominance and critical acclaim operate in separate universes, driven by different mechanisms: algorithms and sustained engagement versus cultural virality and artistic innovation. The year without a definitive “windows-down beach banger” may not reflect a shortage of good music, but rather a fundamental shift in how summer hits are discovered, consumed, and celebrated in the streaming age.