Trouble Below the Surface: Bitcoin's Bearish Indicators Suggest a Seamless Shift in Market Momentum

Bitcoin faces a pivotal moment. While BTC recently traded near $88.16K with modest 24-hour gains of 0.29%, the underlying on-chain signals paint a far more cautious picture. Multiple market analysts are raising red flags about deteriorating fundamentals, suggesting the seamless bull run narrative may be fracturing.

The Bull Score Warning Bell

One of the most alarming signals comes from the Bitcoin Bull Score, a composite indicator incorporating MVRV Z-Score, cycle phases, and profit-taking margins, which has slumped to 20—a level historically preceding market corrections. This reading indicates fundamental deterioration despite Bitcoin maintaining positions above key support zones.

Industry watchers like JA_Maartun have characterized this as “something to take seriously,” warning that the metric’s depression signals weakening bull-run conditions. The assessment echoes broader market sentiment tracked by other analysts. Axel Adler Jr. noted the market sits precariously balanced, with a benchmark index at 43%—just shy of a critical 45% threshold. He termed this state “soft” bearishness, where sentiment could seamlessly revert to neutral territory with supportive derivatives activity, yet absent that catalyst, the market faces technical bounces rather than sustained upward momentum.

Chain Analysis Reveals Pressure Points

Data from Glassnode highlights a critical support band spanning $107,000 to $108,900. A breakdown beneath this level could trigger a more pronounced pullback toward $93,000, dramatically extending losses from Bitcoin’s recent all-time high of $126.08K.

Meanwhile, the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio’s 30-day moving average has deteriorated to a seven-year low near 0.98. This metric reveals that sell-side pressure overwhelmingly dominates buying interest—a dynamic that has historically preceded sharp declines. The seamless transition toward selling pressure represents a notable shift in market behavior.

Price Dynamics and Market Positioning

Over the past seven days, BTC has declined 2.10% from baseline levels. The two-week performance shows a more concerning 8.2% retreat, while the 30-day chart reflects a 3.19% decline. Trading within a seven-day range between approximately $109,214 and $117,016 suggests markets remain indecisive about direction.

Bitcoin now trades 9.1% below its recent peak, with current pricing near $88.16K appearing vulnerable to further compression if support thresholds fail.

The Cycle Debate

Some market participants still reference traditional four-year Bitcoin cycles, with observers like Cryptobirb suggesting the current advance is 93% complete and could peak between late October and mid-November 2025. However, this narrative faces increasing scrutiny. Critics argue the conventional cycle pattern has broken down, with capital flows becoming fragmented into “isolated mini-cycles” rather than rotating seamlessly between Bitcoin, Ethereum, and alternative assets.

This structural shift implies that historical patterns may no longer reliably predict price behavior, adding uncertainty to bullish projections.

Takeaway

The Bitcoin market confronts competing narratives. While some remain optimistic about cycle-based projections, on-chain indicators—the Bull Score, support bands, and trader sentiment metrics—suggest a more fragile foundation. For traders positioned in BTC near current levels, monitoring these technical thresholds and sentiment shifts remains critical.