When Does Bitcoin's Next Rally Peak? Cycle Data Points to 2025 Window

Bitcoin has experienced a volatile September after reaching an all-time high exceeding $124K earlier in the month. Current trading levels near $88.16K reflect the choppiness traders face in this market phase. As the crypto space debates when the next major bull run cycle might conclude, emerging cycle analysis suggests the answer may lie within the next 60 days.

Understanding the Current Cycle Timeline

The current Bitcoin bull market began following the April 19, 2024 halving event. Examining historical patterns provides crucial context. Previous bull runs showed distinct durations: the 2010-2011 cycle lasted 350 days, 2011-2013 stretched 746 days, 2015-2017 extended 1,068 days, and 2018-2021 ran 1,061 days.

The present cycle has now reached approximately 1,007 days. Market cycle research indicates peak formations typically occur between 1,060-1,100 days post-halving, suggesting the pinnacle could manifest from late October through mid-November 2025. This timeframe aligns with historical post-halving peak windows of 366-548 days.

Halving Cycles and Market Seasonality

Bitcoin’s halving events have consistently preceded major market peaks. Calculating from April 2024’s halving, the peak window extends from October 19 to November 20, 2025. This projection coincides with seasonal patterns—August and September have historically underperformed for Bitcoin, while October and November typically deliver strongest momentum.

The correlation between halving cycles and seasonal strength suggests convergence of multiple market forces into this window, potentially creating conditions for significant price movement.

Technical and On-Chain Indicators Remain Constructive

Technical analysis reveals strength beneath recent volatility. Bitcoin trades above its 50-week moving average at $97,094 and 200-week moving average at $52,590, suggesting underlying support despite daily turbulence. Mining metrics show stability, with mining costs near $97,124 indicating operational viability without forced selling pressure.

On-chain health metrics—including NUPL (Non-Ultimate Profit/Loss) and MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratios—point to market equilibrium rather than capitulation conditions. These signals suggest institutional and retail participants remain positioned for continuation rather than panic liquidation.

Institutional Flows and Market Structure

Recent ETF data shows mixed positioning. A single-day outflow of $194 million occurred on August 21, reflecting profit-taking in this volatile environment. However, overall institutional positions remain substantial, and isolated outflows appear insufficient to derail the broader uptrend. Traders monitoring institutional activity note that while these flows merit observation, they typically don’t override larger cycle dynamics.

Historical bear markets following bull peaks have averaged 370-410 days with typical drawdowns around 66%, suggesting substantial downside risk becomes relevant only after peak confirmation.

What This Means for Traders

The convergence of multiple cycle indicators—halving anniversary patterns, seasonality strength, technical support levels, and on-chain stability—creates a compelling case for significant market developments in the Q4 2025 window. Whether this manifests as the cycle peak or merely a corrective pullback within a longer bull structure remains to be seen, but the data concentration into October-November 2025 warrants trader attention.