Cardano Under Whale Pressure: What’s Happening Before Reaching $1?

A few weeks ago, the largest digital wallets started moving with increased activity. The Cardano (ADA) coin, which was trying to stay above $0.92, began facing a strong wave of selling from major traders. The result? The coin lost about 6% of its value over the past week, and the reserves in whale wallets (those holding more than a million coins) dropped to their lowest levels since mid-August.

Today, Cardano is trading below the psychologically important level of one dollar, and it repeatedly attempts to stay above the $0.80 mark. This level has become a real battleground between buyers and sellers, based on detailed on-chain analysis data.

How Did Whale Activity Drive Cardano Prices Down?

When whales move their funds, a whole market usually follows. Recently, there has been a noticeable outflow of balances from these large wallets. In just seven days, whales sold around 30 million ADA coins, causing their total reserves to decrease to 5.57 billion coins.

This move was not random. Whales began liquidating their positions when Cardano approached $0.92, a strategic profit-taking point. The selling pressure continued until the coin hit a local low of $0.78 in early September.

RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicators suggest that the market was in a severe collapse at that moment, but the quick rebound above $0.80 reflects an important point: most investors currently do not want to sell all their holdings. This indicates the formation of a potential support zone that could be the next launching point.

Market Signals: When Do Negative Sentiments Turn Into Opportunities?

There is an old but very effective indicator: when social media sentiments become extremely negative, the market has often found its true bottom. In late August, the overall sentiment was very positive, with everyone expecting a new rally. But as prices started to decline, sentiments quickly reversed.

At the end of last month, the tone on social platforms was at a record negative level — the strongest in five full months. Historically, this pattern is considered a sign of collective capitulation. Indeed, a few days after this peak in negativity, prices rose by nearly 5%.

The lesson: traders who avoided panic and held their positions benefited from this move. Now, as Cardano tries to surpass $0.82, sentiments are gradually improving, and the next resistance levels are at $0.90 and then the psychological $1 mark.

Fundamental Statement: Can Institutions Wake the Chain?

There is news that could completely change the game. Market experts are betting on the possibility that the US market will launch a traded investment fund for Cardano in 2025. The estimated probability is 87% — a huge jump from the 21% that existed at the beginning of this year.

Analysts at major financial institutions estimate the approval likelihood at around 75%. Leading investment firms have already submitted official applications to launch these financial instruments. The process is expected to be slow, but by the end of 2025 or early 2026, we might see this product materialize.

If this happens, doors will open for massive capital inflows that were previously unable to enter. This would mean a substantial institutional capital injection that could push the price very high. In the medium term, Cardano could trade above $1.50 — a target achieved both technically and fundamentally.

The Big Picture: What Awaits Us?

Cardano is now at a crossroads. On one hand, selling pressure from whales continues, and negative sentiments are still present. On the other hand, indicators suggest that the bottom may already have formed, and institutional opportunities are approaching.

Critical levels to watch:

• $0.70: If the coin falls below this level, we may see a deep sell-off reaching $0.51–$0.57
• $0.80: current support zone and important floor
• $0.90: near-term resistance level
• $1.00: major psychological barrier and gateway to higher levels

Cardano’s current value represents a 73% decline from its all-time high ($3.09 in September 2021), but it still remains among the top ten cryptocurrencies worldwide.

The primary scenario: if Cardano can stay above $0.70 and maintain support around $0.80, the anticipated ETF approval could be the catalyst needed for a real surge. Patience may pay off.