Christmas Week Market Outlook: Fed Chair's Mystery to Be Revealed, Three Major Macroeconomic Data Points to Follow

[Bi推] The Christmas week market is迎来 a key time window. The US stock market will close early at 2 AM Beijing time on the 25th, with the market closed all day on Thursday, and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will also have a half-day closing on Wednesday. This Node just happens to become the market's focus point—whether Trump will announce the Fed chairman candidate before or after the holiday.

Currently, the market expectations for the new Fed chair nominee are quite clear: Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, has the highest chance of being nominated at about 54%, far exceeding other candidates. Former Fed governor Kevin Walsh is next, with a probability of about 21%, followed by Fed governor Christopher Waller in third place, with a probability of about 14%. This market pricing alone is enough to stir macro expectations.

However, the real highlight is at the data level. Next Tuesday, the initial value of the annualized quarterly GDP for the third quarter in the United States, the initial value of the annualized quarterly personal consumption expenditures, and the initial value of the core PCE price index will all be released—these three data points are significant for the Fed's subsequent policy path. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada will publish the minutes of its monetary policy meeting, and on the same day, there will also be initial unemployment claims data for the week ending December 20 in the United States. On Thursday, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo will deliver a speech at the Japan Business Federation, and Japan's unemployment rate for November will also be released.

The certainty in the macro environment is decreasing, but it is precisely this uncertainty that often tests traders' adaptability the most. The selection of the Fed chair, the direction of global central banks, and the trends in economic data—all of these directly relate to the risk appetite of the crypto market.