2025-12-21 05:10:18

#大户持仓动态 Fed policy shift, market expectations rapidly reversed

The recent market change signals are very clear — the widely anticipated rate cut in March now seems increasingly distant. Data shows that the probability of a rate cut in January has dropped to 22%, and this shift has come quite suddenly. Fed Vice Chairman Williams' recent remarks have further dampened market expectations: the inflation risks may be underestimated by the market, which suggests that a higher interest rate environment may need to be maintained for a longer period.

What this reflects is actually a confrontation between two forces—on one side are policymakers hoping to stabilize economic growth through loose policies, and on the other side is the central bank's uncompromising stance against inflation. Investors are caught in the middle of this contradiction, and market sentiment has become very tense.

What is the key right now? The next round of CPI data, Powell's public speech, or even a hint from the policy level could become the fuse that ignites the market. The current market is in a highly sensitive state, and any anticipated reversal could trigger significant volatility.

From a trading perspective, the most important thing during this period is to respond flexibly—don't put all your chips on one direction. Keep a close eye on the release pace of economic data and maintain enough room for position adjustments. Historical experience tells us that the lower the market expectations are compressed, the more intense the reversal tends to be once it explodes. In the current high volatility environment, having a good risk plan and being prepared for quick responses is the true way to survive.

Is your current strategy to adopt a defensive wait-and-see approach or to accumulate positions on dips?

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WhaleMinion

· 2025-12-24 04:17

Is interest rate cut off? This time we really have to hold on, a 22% probability is just laughable... --- As soon as Williams said this, I knew it was bad news, inflation is going to continue, the Wallet is getting tougher --- Can't hold on anymore, this wave of fluctuations is too frequent, let's wait for the CPI, it won't change much anyway --- Don't mess around, now the Central Bank says they won't cut, we can only obediently bear the interest rate --- Buying on dips? Dude, what are we supposed to buy at this time, just survive first --- The lower the expectation, the sharper the reversal? It's a trick, I choose to believe in my Wallet --- What are the Large Investors thinking, do they still dare to dump in at this time? --- A single word from Powell can ignite the market, we retail investors are really powerless --- Defensive wait-and-see is nonsense, now no one dares to bet on one direction --- Making risk plans under high volatility? Easy to say, but when it comes to dumping, no one can escape.

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LiquidatedNotStirred

· 2025-12-23 11:01

The interest rate cut is gone, but my short order is still here... waiting for Powell's next words to explode.

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OnchainSniper

· 2025-12-21 08:28

The probability of interest rate cuts has fallen to 22%, this reversal is indeed quite harsh. Powell is really oscillating between "stabilizing prices" and "stabilizing the economy," and investors are on edge waiting for news. Now we are just waiting for the CPI data to get dumped; it will either take off or plummet straight down, with no middle ground. Let’s stay defensive and watch; chasing the price at this time is just contributing to the suckers.

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TaxEvader

· 2025-12-21 05:39

The interest rate cuts are gone, now just waiting to be played people for suckers, I bet Powell will change his tune next time.

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RektDetective

· 2025-12-21 05:34

Interest rate cuts are doomed now, it all depends on whether CPI can save the situation... If it really gets trapped at a high position, then it won't be a laughing matter.

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ZenChainWalker

· 2025-12-21 05:31

Interest rate cuts are still far off, now we really have to look at Powell's expression. Sigh, another expectation dashed, a 22% probability feels like gambling. Let's wait for the CPI data, anyway, anything said now is pointless. Defensive + wait-and-see, keep some ammo for opportunities, we can't afford to play in such a volatile market. Once Williams spoke, the market instantly cooled down. After all, it's still inflation that is the roadblock, the Central Bank's attitude is very tough. It feels like the market is a tightly stretched string, ready to snap at any moment. Every historical expectation reversal has been a big show, this time will be no different. Not daring to place heavy bets, I'd rather wait a bit longer and act once everything is clear.

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ProxyCollector

· 2025-12-21 05:18

It's again this script of expected reversal, the dream of interest rate cuts has indeed shattered. Let's play it safe and watch, not brave enough to buy the dip, will wait till Powell speaks. The Fed plays word games, and we have to follow anxiously. CPI day is likely to explode, better hold tight to cash now. What happened to the promised steady growth? Inflation is blocked again, awkward. Why does it always turn out this way? As soon as the policy shifts, the market explodes, the sense of rhythm is truly remarkable. It's really just a gamble on whether it will reverse later, but I don't want to bet now. I really can't hold on anymore, I have to check the data calendar every day just to sleep.

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BlockchainBrokenPromise

· 2025-12-21 05:15

22% chance of interest rate cut? Dude, isn't this just a shattered dream? Should have acted earlier. Interest rate cuts are nowhere in sight, the hawks have won again, what should I do with my long order? Williams really has a way with words, breaking investors' dreams for half a year with just one sentence. Just lie flat and observe, everything is a trigger right now, can't afford to provoke. The more expectations are suppressed, the more violent the rebound will be; this wave could either yield huge profits or massive losses. I'm not daring to go all in anymore; a phased layout is the way to go, and I need to keep some bullets left. Isn't the CPI day going to be a bloodbath? Better be prepared for stop loss. Rather than guessing policies, it's better to follow the data; it's more solid that way. Wasn't it said a while ago that we would see an interest rate cut in March? How come it's doomed now? Under high volatility, I'll just watch the show and wait for a clear signal before making a move.

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