The probability of a rate cut in January has fallen to 22%. This number reflects a fundamental reassessment of the market regarding the Fed's policy path.

Recently, the core decision-making body of the Fed sent out new signals. Williams bluntly stated in his speech: "Inflation may have been severely underestimated." Once this statement was made, the market's expectations for interest rate cuts instantly cooled down. The previously agreed interest rate cut window now seems to be postponed for a longer time — a higher interest rate environment may become the norm.

But there's an interesting point here: the "pulling" of policies between the White House and the Fed has been happening in the shadows. If you closely observe the recent market reactions, you'll find it resembles a tightly compressed spring. Any unexpected economic data, or a single statement from a central bank official, is enough to trigger a severe directional reversal.

For Ethereum, this expected reversal may just be the real explosive period. Once the market's fantasy of interest rate cuts is completely shattered, a reverse expectation correction may occur instead - once the data eases, the rebound potential will be very considerable.

What should be the strategy at this stage? Don't try to hit the point precisely, and don't be scared by short-term fluctuations. The core is to manage the position size well, closely monitor the release of key economic data, and retain sufficient flexibility. The lower the expectations are suppressed, the greater the upward potential often is once it turns. This expectation-driven game has just begun, and the key is to keep up with the rhythm when changes come.