#美联储货币政策 The Fed is almost certain to cut rates in the early hours of Thursday, with an 84% probability of 25bp, but this meeting is really interesting 🔥

Among the 12 voting members of the FOMC, 5 opposed or were skeptical about further rate cuts, which is the largest divide since 2019, intensifying the hawk-dove debate. The key is not whether to cut or not, but how Powell communicates and how the dot plot is drawn—this will determine whether monetary easing can continue into 2026.

The balance sheet guidelines are what truly affect the year-end market situation. Currently, BTC is fluctuating in the range of $84,000 to $100,000, and by the end of the year, liquidity has hit rock bottom and the market depth is extremely poor. Any small capital movement can trigger violent fluctuations. Long-term funds are quietly accumulating (ETH exchange reserves are at a ten-year low, and 25,000 BTC have been withdrawn in the past two weeks), which is laying the groundwork for the upcoming market situation.

With this move on Thursday, the pace for 2026 has been set. If the hawks gain the upper hand, the pace of rate cuts will clearly slow down, which could be a long-term negative for the crypto space; if Powell still wants to continue easing, then that would be our opportunity to turn things around 💰

Keep a close eye on Powell's press conference; those 30 minutes at 3:30 can decide whether you make a profit or a loss this month.