I will mindlessly buy YES for 2026.12.31 until mid-next year.

If a ceasefire occurs in advance: Settlement is YES
Even if the ceasefire is not achieved, this politically charged topic will inevitably be raised multiple times. This year alone, Trump has claimed several times that he wants to end the Russia-Ukraine war, and it will inevitably respond to the hype with price reactions.
However, you can't earn too much. At the beginning of the year, making a profit of a few percent by the end of the year is how I see the prediction market operates. Achieving a return that surpasses low-risk financial management is a victory.
What I like most is this market with particularly long settlement times. Although the long duration occupies a lot of capital, the risk is low, and there is a lot of room for maneuver in between. Even if I get caught actively, I still have time to wait for a way out.
Moreover, since this order book is very thin, I will place my orders in batches, and often someone will sell to me at market price.