Recently, an interesting change has emerged in the prediction market. According to the odds data from Polymarket, the current chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Kevin Hassett, has seen his probability of becoming the next Federal Reserve Chairman rise to 56%, far exceeding that of other candidates—Waller at 22% and Kashkari at 12%.

What does this data mean? In an interview in November this year, Hasit candidly stated that if he were to become the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, he would "immediately initiate interest rate cuts." This statement has attracted considerable attention in the market.

If 2026 really advances according to this logic, the market generally expects to see a series of policy shifts: ending quantitative tightening and shifting to quantitative easing, moving from simple interest rate cuts to significant rate reductions, and even possibly restarting variant QE tools. In simple terms, liquidity will experience a significant release.

For crypto assets, liquidity easing has always been an important driving force in the market. Although the final implementation of the policy still needs to be observed, these signals are already sufficient for market participants to digest expectations in advance.