Analysts predict bitcoin at $1.4 million

By 2035, the price of the first cryptocurrency could reach $1.42 million due to an influx of institutional investors and the displacement of gold as a store of value. This is stated in a report by the research firm CF Benchmarks, supported by the Kraken exchange.

Analysts Gabriel Selby and Mark Pilipchuk built a forecast based on three metrics: comparison of market capitalization, mining economics, and the asset's reaction to monetary issuance.

Experts modeled three scenarios for the next 10 years:

bearish ($637 000): the first cryptocurrency will continue to grow within the current historical trend and will reach 16% of gold's capitalization;
base ($1.42 million): adoption rates will double, and the asset will take one third of the global savings market. The expected annual return on investment is around 30%;
bullish ($2.95 million): bitcoin will become the dominant accumulation tool and surpass gold, reaching 125% of its market value.
Competition with gold and "money printing"
Analysts pointed out the asymmetric return profile of Bitcoin: the growth potential significantly outweighs the risks of decline.

Over the past 10 years, the median return on investments in the asset has been 5.78% per month. For comparison, the figure for stocks is 1.48%, while for commodities it is 0.21%.

The key driver of growth is named the limited issuance of bitcoin against the backdrop of the constant expansion of the global money supply. The correlation of the asset's price with the increase in liquidity manifests with a three-month delay.

The report noted the structural advantage of digital gold. Unlike precious metals, whose supply increases by about 1.5% per year, the supply of bitcoin is programmatically limited, and its production becomes more expensive due to halving events and the increasing difficulty of the network.

Reduction of volatility and role in the portfolio
CF Benchmarks has projected a further decline in Bitcoin's volatility as the market matures. It is expected that by 2035 this figure will drop from the current 30-40% to 28%.

Integrating an asset into a classic 60/40 portfolio (stocks/bonds) even at a volume of 2-5% significantly improves the risk-return ratio. This is due to the low correlation of cryptocurrency with traditional assets:

the connection with global stocks is moderate and will decrease (forecast of correlation by 2035 — 0.15);
The correlation with bonds and gold will remain close to zero.
According to surveys of institutional investors, 73% of respondents recognize the long-term value of digital assets, and 68% plan to increase their investments in this sector over the next two years.

Other forecasts
Selby and Pilipchak are not the only ones expecting a seven-figure price tag. Previously, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong predicted a price of $1 million by 2030. Among the growth factors, he highlighted regulatory clarity, the creation of Bitcoin reserves by the US government, and interest in ETFs.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes expects this milestone to be reached by 2028. Strategy head Fong Lee believes that the adoption of Bitcoin at the state level will trigger a wave of purchases as early as 2026.

The common driver of growth in analytics has been identified as a combination of macroeconomic factors and institutional demand. Economist Ed Yardeni believes that the U.S. is entering a phase of the "roaring twenties," where artificial intelligence and productivity growth will spur interest in risky assets.

Let us remind you that Bitwise and Grayscale predicted a new Bitcoin high in 2026.