#美联储政策 The 93% probability is no longer a suspense; the Fed is set to cut rates by 25 basis points in December, and this is basically a done deal. But the real game has just begun — JPMorgan openly states that the rate cut expectations have already been fully priced in, which means that institutions have already been lying in ambush at high levels, just waiting for retail investors to make one last push before collectively taking profits.

The probability of no interest rate cut in January is 68%, this data is even more absolute. In the short term, the Fed may have to hit the brakes, which means the benefits have already been consumed, and it's easy to form a high-level plunge afterward. Those who are still chasing risk assets should be careful not to become the bag holders by the end of the year. My feeling is that large funds have already started to quietly withdraw, waiting to see how retail investors will cut their losses.

Rather than chasing high-priced US stocks, it's better to shift focus to those truly imaginative targets—interest rate cut expectations themselves are a signal of liquidity release, and finding the real varieties that will be catalyzed early is the key. It feels like this wave of market trend requires a contrarian approach.