#美国就业数据表现强劲超出预期 In a few days, the Christmas cycle will begin, and this time window is quite interesting in the traditional market.

Historical data shows that during the period from the end of the year to the New Year (the last 5 trading days + the first 2 trading days of the new year), the probability of an increase is about 79%, with an average increase of around 1.3%. In extreme cases, there has been an increase of 7.4%, as well as a decrease of 4.2%. However, this is not just a numbers game.

In simple terms, the essence of the Christmas market is a barometer of investors' risk appetite. If the market rises as expected during this period, it indicates that even if there are no new macroeconomic benefits, people are still willing to allocate to risk assets; this confirmation of sentiment is crucial for asset pricing in the new year. Conversely, if the market remains weak or experiences repeated fluctuations at this time, the recovery of risk appetite in January and even over a longer period may still be challenging.

From an institutional perspective, the tax-loss harvesting in mid-December will release a wave of capital inflow. Coupled with the decline in institutional trading activity and shrinking trading volume during the holidays, even a small amount of buying can drive up the index. The passive allocation funds from year-end bonuses and automatic deductions for pensions will also continuously provide support.

The changes in Bitcoin have been quite noticeable recently – the weekend trading volume has finally decreased, indicating that the actual trading volume by real users is not that high. The usually high trading volume during the week is likely due to the operations of quantitative institutions or short-term high-frequency investors, while the weekend reflects the true intentions of real holders. However, once the Christmas cycle begins next week, trading volume and turnover rate will continue to decline.

This Christmas market is essentially laying the emotional groundwork for the first quarter of 2026. If, under the triple support of seasonal benefits, gradually restored liquidity, and the filling of the emotional vacuum, the market still fails to rise effectively, then we must seriously consider one issue: the current high interest rate environment is suppressing the economy far more than the emotional boost that holiday factors can provide.