K33 Research Annual Outlook: Multiple Favourable Information Resonance, BTC may outperform US stocks and gold in 2026

The well-known analytical institution K33 Research expressed a constructive bullish attitude towards the cryptocurrency market for 2026 in its latest report "2025 Annual Review".

The report predicts that although Bitcoin will underperform compared to U.S. stocks and gold in 2025 due to factors such as mass profit-taking by early holders, it is expected that Bitcoin's performance will surpass stock indices and gold in 2026. The core driving force behind this prediction is the resonance effect of multiple favourable information, including clear regulations, macro policy support, and accelerated adoption by institutions.

At the macro level, the report predicts that the Trump administration will appoint a dovish Federal Reserve chair to expand monetary policy rates and replace the previous tightening cycle. This shift towards an "abundant" liquidity environment will provide an ideal upward backdrop for scarce assets like Bitcoin.

In terms of regulation, the report believes that the Clarity Act is expected to pass in the first quarter of 2026, and more supportive legislation will also be signed at the beginning of the year, which will provide unprecedented certainty for the industry.

It is worth noting that the incremental funds from institutions are also seen as a key driving force for the bullish sentiment. First, Morgan Stanley plans to allow investment advisors to allocate Bitcoin ETFs for clients starting from January 1, 2026;

Secondly, E\*Trade's retail crypto trading is also expected to officially launch in the first half of the year. Against this backdrop, the report predicts that net inflows for Bitcoin ETFs will exceed those of 2025 in 2026.

At the same time, the continuous increase in holdings by corporate finance departments will provide strong support for the market, and it is expected to result in a net absorption of 150,000 BTC across the industry. As the 401(k) pension plan opens up to digital assets, with its allocation ratio of only 1% to 5%, it will also create a very considerable buying scale.

On the supply and demand structure level, the report points out that the supply of Bitcoin held for more than 2 years is expected to rebound to over 12.16 million by the end of 2026. This change means that the long-term selling pressure from early holders will basically fade away, and their role will shift from net sellers to potential net buyers.

In summary, this fundamental shift in the supply and demand relationship, combined with the continuously growing institutional demand, will also provide strong support for BTC to outperform traditional assets in 2026.

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