The race to $4000: Why are gold analyses leading investors' agendas in 2025?

Shocking Data That Changed the Market Equation

Since the outlook for 2025, investors’ questions are no longer about why gold is rising but about whether this rally can continue. The numbers speak plainly: Gold has gained 47% since the beginning of the year, outperforming most traditional assets. In just the first half of the year, it increased by 26%, while trading volumes reached a record high of $329 billion daily.

This exceptional performance did not come out of nowhere. It is a direct reflection of a complex mix of economic and political pressures that make gold the only safe haven in a world full of uncertainties.

Drivers of the Rally: Fundamental Gold Analyses

The Trade War and Its Impact on Prices

The year started with a wave of American protectionist measures, imposing hefty tariffs on April 12 (, dubbed “Liberation Day”), which sparked widespread concern. Investors did not hesitate: they turned directly to gold as a hedge against uncertainty.

The result was clear in the prices, but more importantly, this was not the end of the story. Threats of additional tariffs of 100% on Chinese goods from November onward kept upward pressure on precious metals.

Rate Cuts: The Double-Edged Sword

The US Federal Reserve found itself in a difficult position. Weakening labor markets and overall economic activity pushed for a rate cut from 4.5% to 4.25% on September 17. This decision was a green light for gold, which jumped 22.9% in September alone.

But there is a paradox: the cut was not enough to solve the core problem—continued inflation. IMF forecasts indicate that global inflation could reach 4.2% in 2025, well above the historical average (2-3%). This means investors still need protection against the erosion of purchasing power, and that’s where gold comes in.

Geopolitical Tensions: The Constant Catalyst

The Ukraine war has not stopped; it has intensified. Russia warned of expanding the scope, while the Middle East has seen repeated Israeli-Iranian clashes, with serious concerns over cutting vital maritime trade routes, especially the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.

This dangerous dynamic kept investors in a constant state of anticipation, reinforcing their preference for safe assets. Even the ceasefire in Gaza did not fully calm the markets.

The US Government Shutdown: The Uncertainty Factor

The continuation of the Continuing Resolution on September 30 without an agreement between Republicans and Democrats led to a partial government shutdown starting October 1. This shutdown threatens to delay the release of critical economic data, adding a layer of uncertainty about the US economy precisely when the Federal Reserve desperately needs this information.

The Role of Institutions in Fueling the Rise

Current gold analyses are incomplete without mentioning the role of major players. Gold ETF holdings increased by 41%, reaching $383 billion. Central banks also continued their accumulation policy, diversifying their reserves by increasing their gold holdings.

This is not random behavior—it is a strategic reflection of the belief among major financial institutions that gold is the best protection against upcoming shocks.

Expected Scenarios for the Coming Months

The Likely Scenario: Correction then Renewed Rise

In the short term (October), prices are expected to correct toward the $3,820–$3,900 range. This is natural after a sharp jump, especially after testing strong resistance levels at $4,050.

But after this correction, forecasts indicate a return to upward movement in November and December, with the potential to reach levels of $4,100–$4,200 by year-end. This scenario implies an annual return of around 56%.

The Extreme Scenario: Breaking the $4,000 Barrier

In case of a negative development in geopolitical or economic conditions (such as a comprehensive stagflation, a wide-scale military confrontation), gold could definitely break the $4,000 level and end the year around $4,400.

This scenario is less likely but remains within the realm of possibilities.

Technical Perspective: What Do the Charts Say?

The technical picture supports the primary outlook. Gold has been in a strong upward trend since mid-2024, maintaining close closes above the 100-day moving average, and has broken through significant resistance at $3,700 and $3,800.

The MACD still shows positive signals, but the histogram has started to slow, indicating upcoming weakening buying momentum. Key supports are at: $3,900 (first support), $3,819 (second support), and $3,700 (vital support). Breaking this last level could mean a deeper correction.

How to Capitalize on Market Movements

For Long-Term Investors

The goal is to preserve value against inflation and shocks. Institutions and central banks invest in physical gold or specialized funds. This approach ignores short-term volatility.

For Active Traders

It requires mastering technical and fundamental gold analyses. Trading can be done via specialized ETFs, mining stocks, or derivatives (CFDs), which offer greater flexibility but come with higher risks.

Gold Allocation in Portfolio

Experts recommend no less than 15-20% of total investment portfolio value. This provides sufficient protection against sudden shocks without overexposure.

Conclusion: Is the Rally Sustainable?

Yes, with reservations. Current gold analyses indicate continued strong support from fundamental factors: high inflation, accommodative monetary policies, and geopolitical tensions.

Corrections are definitely coming—markets do not rise in a straight line—but the overall trend remains upward. For new investors: this is a good time to introduce gold into a balanced portfolio. For experienced traders: opportunities await at correction levels, especially around $3,820–$3,900.

The question is not if gold will continue rising, but when and how fast.