When will gold reach $4,500? Predictions for 2025-2026 and real trading opportunities

Gold in 2025 told an extraordinary success story, achieving gains that exceeded the expectations of the largest investment banks. The year began at $2,798 per ounce and gradually accelerated, breaking the $4,000 barrier for the first time on October 8, before soaring to a historic peak of $4,381 in mid-October. This exceptional performance—with gains over 50% since the start of the year—redefined analyst discussions about the future of the precious metal.

Now, as 2026 approaches, the fundamental question shifts from “Will gold rise?” to “How high will it go?”

The Amazing Performance of Gold in 2024: From Rise to Stability

Before the excitement about 2025-2026, it’s important to understand gold’s trajectory in 2024. The year started strongly at $2,251 in Q1, supported by heavy central bank buying, especially in Asia. Then, the rally accelerated in Q2 to reach $2,450, benefiting from market bets on US interest rate cuts.

Q3 saw even greater expansion at $2,672, while Q4 was more volatile. Gold rose to $2,785 in October, then dipped slightly before stabilizing around $2,715 by year-end, overall maintaining a strong upward trend.

What Happened in 2025? The True Gold Year

If 2024 was a strong year, 2025 was truly exceptional. Gold started with persistent momentum, recording an almost uninterrupted upward march:

Rising from 2798 to 4381 dollars reflects clear confidence among traders and investors in the metal’s value. The reasons are no mystery: escalating geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation above 3% according to official US data, and repeated expectations of US interest rate cuts—all pushing capital toward the safe haven that never lets down.

2025-2026 Outlook: What Do Experts Say?

Major investment banks are changing their tone:

JPMorgan: Their average forecast reaches $5,000 by 2026, with $4,900 in the last quarter of 2026.

Goldman Sachs: A conservative outlook of $4,000 mid-2026, but an optimistic scenario sees $4,900 by year-end.

Morgan Stanley: Expects $4,500 mid-2026 supported by investment fund flows and central bank purchases.

Standard Chartered: Projects $4,300 by the end of 2025, targeting 4,500 over 12 months.

HSBC: Raises forecasts to $5,000 in 2026.

ANZ: More moderate expectations at $4,400 end of 2025 and $4,600 mid-2026.

The clear conclusion: most forecasts range between $4,300 and $5,000 in the upcoming period.

What Really Drives Gold? The Five Key Factors

Inflation remains the primary enemy

With global inflation still above central banks’ targets (3% instead of 2%), gold remains the optimal solution to preserve purchasing power. Investors who experienced erosion of their savings in 2021-2022 won’t forget the lesson.

Weak dollar = strong gold

The relationship is inverse and consistent: the weaker the US dollar, the higher gold. The current weak dollar is no coincidence—it’s the result of ongoing monetary easing policies and expectations of rate cuts.

Central banks buy relentlessly

China, India, and other emerging market central banks continue to buy gold as part of their reserves. This ongoing institutional demand provides fundamental support for prices.

Demand from investment funds

Since the launch of gold ETFs (, gold markets have opened to millions of individual investors. Flows into these funds translate directly into physical gold purchases.

) Geopolitical instability

Regional conflicts and global tensions keep safe-haven demand high. When people feel insecure, they turn to gold.

How to Invest in Gold Smartly?

For short-term traders: CFDs

If you want to benefit from daily volatility without owning physical gold, CFDs ### offer high flexibility:

• Practical example: depositing $1,000 with 1:100 leverage gives exposure to $100,000 worth of gold. If the price rises from 3700 to 3710 dollars, you make a $1,000 profit.
• But beware: leverage also amplifies losses equally.

( For long-term investors: bars and funds

Buying physical gold or gold-backed funds remains the safest option. You own a real asset that cannot become worthless, unlike stocks or bonds.

Common Mistakes to Avoid

1. Don’t trade on emotion: Emotional decisions in a volatile market like gold are destructive. Have a plan and stick to it.

2. Don’t ignore inflation: A savings account earning 2% interest while inflation is 3% effectively erodes your wealth. Gold protects against this.

3. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket: Gold should be part of a diversified portfolio, not the entire holdings.

4. Don’t overlook storage costs: If you buy physical gold, remember insurance and secure storage costs.

Are There Risks That Could Threaten the Positive Outlook?

Yes, several factors could change the course:

• Fed tightening again: If the Federal Reserve decides to raise rates instead of cutting, gold will suffer.
• Disappearance of geopolitical tensions: If crises suddenly end, safe-haven demand may decline.
• Capital shift: Mass exodus from gold into other assets could pressure prices sharply.

Conclusion: Is Gold Expected to Rise in 2026?

All indicators point to yes. Persistent inflation, a weak dollar, institutional demand from central banks, and geopolitical tensions—all support a bullish outlook. Major investment bank forecasts range between $4,300 and $5,000, with solid reasons backing these numbers.

But investing in gold is not a guarantee; it’s a probability calculation. A smart strategy combines diversified portfolios and clear plans, whether you choose short-term trading or long-term investing.

Ultimately, gold is not just a metal—it’s an insurance against uncertainty—and in today’s world, that insurance is more valuable than ever.