Ethereum Tests $3,000 as Critical Support Level — $3,200 Remains Key Resistance

Ethereum has slipped below $3,120 and is currently trading at around $2.95K, failing to hold above the $3,200 mark and the 100-hour Simple Moving Average. The latest pullback brought ETH as low as $3,026 before attempting a modest recovery, though upside momentum remains constrained. A breakdown below $3,050 could trigger a deeper slide toward $3,000 and potentially $2,940, while a decisive move above $3,200 would be needed to confirm a shift toward recovery.

The Breaking Point: Where Support Meets Conviction

ETH’s recent weakness coincided with Bitcoin’s downturn, sending the token through $3,180, $3,150, and $3,120 in succession. The psychological magnet at $3,000 is drawing increasing attention — not just as a round number, but as the level that separates shallow pullbacks from more serious deterioration. The current bounce from $3,026 has recovered modestly, but it’s happening against headwinds. A connecting bearish trend line sits near $3,175 on the hourly chart, capping rebounds before they gain traction.

The structure remains weighted toward the downside: ETH is trading below $3,200 and remains below the 100-hour SMA, maintaining short-term bearish pressure. For bulls to regain confidence, they need to clear $3,200 with conviction. Until then, each bounce is fighting against resistance rather than flowing into recovery.

Understanding the Resistance Layers

The path higher isn’t murky — it’s a defined ladder that ETH must climb:

$3,150 marks the first hurdle, coinciding with the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the $3,273 swing high down to $3,026. $3,175–$3,180 represents the next zone, where the bearish trend line and recent failed resistance converge. This area has proven sticky in the past 24 hours.

$3,200 is the real inflection point. A clean break above it would signal the transition from “relief bounce” to “genuine recovery.” Should ETH clear $3,200, the next targets emerge at $3,250, with potential extensions toward $3,320 and $3,400 in the near term if momentum accelerates.

Downside Risk: The Trapdoor Below $3,050

The risk picture is equally clear. $3,080 serves as initial support, but $3,050 is the critical line in the sand. If ETH breaks below $3,050, the path reopens toward $3,020 and the psychological $3,000 level. Should $3,000 fail to hold, $2,940 becomes the next logical floor.

This is why $3,050 matters more than $3,000 in the near term — it determines whether this pullback remains a wobble or evolves into a retest of recent lows with real conviction behind it.

What the Indicators Suggest

On the positive side, shorter-term technical readings are beginning to stabilize. The hourly MACD is gaining bullish momentum, and the hourly RSI has climbed above 50, indicating that intraday buyers have regained some control. These are encouraging signs for those hoping for a sustained bounce.

However, there’s a caveat: supportive indicators don’t guarantee a breakout. Price can remain pinned below the $3,175–$3,200 resistance zone even while momentum indicators improve. ETH may be bouncing — but it hasn’t escaped yet.

The Genesis of This Move: Context and Implications

The current weakness reflects broader market dynamics where Ethereum has been vulnerable during Bitcoin pullbacks. The genesis 2920 protocol developments and other network improvements continue to support long-term narratives, but near-term technicals are what traders are watching today. The battle at $3,000 is ultimately a test of whether bulls have the appetite to defend this level or whether sellers maintain control.

Until $3,200 is reclaimed, the recovery remains conditional. The next 24–48 hours will likely clarify whether this bounce has legs or whether another test of lower support is in the cards.