Unemployment rate hits four-year high: US stocks diverge, crude oil plunges, Tesla defies the trend to reach new highs

The US November employment data has just been released, and market reactions are complex—unemployment rate surged to 4.6%, hitting a new high since September 2021. Although non-farm employment increased by 64,000, exceeding expectations of 45,000, the underlying truth revealed by this data has investors re-evaluating the Fed’s room to cut interest rates.

Labor Market Warning Lights: Low Layoffs Don’t Equal Good News

Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released on Tuesday show that in November, seasonally adjusted non-farm employment increased by 64,000. While this appears better than the market expectation of 45,000, it is actually a “false prosperity.” The key lies in the trend of the unemployment rate—rising from 4.44% in September to 4.564% in November, an increase of 12.4 basis points in just one month.

Even more concerning is the significant downward revision of October data—non-farm jobs were reduced by 105,000, the largest decline since the end of 2020. Among these, government jobs were cut by 162,000 (mainly due to the US government shutdown causing data gaps). Nick Timiraos, a senior reporter at The Wall Street Journal and known as a “Fed insider,” pointed out that over the past six months ending in November, private sector employment has increased by an average of only 44,000 per month, the slowest recruitment pace in six months during the post-pandemic economic restart cycle.

Market interpretation is straightforward: most companies are neither laying off employees on a large scale nor hiring new staff in large numbers. The core driving force behind this cannot be ignored—many businesses believe that many tasks can be completed by artificial intelligence. As AI technology accelerates, the attractiveness of traditional jobs is waning.

Fed Door Closes: Hope for Rate Cuts Dashes Again

After the release of the new employment data, the CME FedWatch Tool shows that the probability of a rate cut again in January remains at 24%, unchanged from the previous day. This indicates that market expectations for further cuts in the federal funds rate continue to cool.

However, the yields on the 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds have shown interesting movements—2-year yields fell initially and then rebounded, while 10-year yields surged and then retreated to around 4.14%. Notably, we are currently in a “triangle dilemma”: the 10-year US Treasury yield, oil prices, and the US dollar index are all declining simultaneously. This rare combination reflects increasing market concerns about a US recession.

Stock Market Divergence Worsens: Tech Stocks Show Differentiation, Tesla Becomes Dark Horse

On December 16, the three major US stock indices showed mixed performance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.62%, the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.24% and has fallen for three consecutive trading days, reflecting selling pressure on tech stocks. The Nasdaq 100 index rebounded slightly by 0.23%, indicating some tech giants still show resilience. The China Golden Dragon Index fell 0.34%.

European markets all declined: Germany DAX 30 down 0.63%, France CAC 40 down 0.23%, UK FTSE 100 down 0.68%, with the overall European economic growth outlook also under pressure.

In terms of popular stocks, there was clear differentiation: Tesla rose over 3%, hitting a new closing high, with its market cap rising to the seventh largest US-listed company, becoming the biggest winner today. This is partly due to market optimism about its Robotaxi commercialization. Nvidia gained 0.81%, Apple rose slightly by 0.18%, Microsoft increased by 0.33%. Conversely, Google fell 0.54%, Amazon was nearly flat with a 0.01% increase, and Meta rose 1.49%.

Commodities and Forex: Crude Oil Plummets, US Dollar Weakens

Volatility in the commodities market intensified. Gold fell 0.06% to $4,302 per ounce, a limited decline. WTI crude oil performed poorly, dropping 2.66% to $55.17 per barrel, reflecting market concerns over a slowdown in global economic growth—expectations of demand have decreased, pressuring oil prices.

The US dollar index fell 0.04% to 98.21, USD/JPY declined 0.31%, EUR/USD remained roughly flat, overall dollar trend is weak, echoing the decline in bond yields.

Crypto Assets: Bitcoin Holds Steady, Ethereum Slightly Under Pressure

Cryptocurrency markets performed relatively stably. Bitcoin rose 1.42% in 24 hours, with the latest price at $87,653, showing relative resilience. Ethereum declined 0.4% in 24 hours, with the latest price at $2,950.8, with moderate fluctuations.

Converted to RMB, Bitcoin’s latest price is approximately 570,000 RMB, Ethereum around 19,000 RMB. The performance of these tokens against the RMB provides important reference for investors planning digital asset allocations.

In Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index night session futures closed at 25,219 points, down 32 points, compared to the previous close of 25,235 points, with a discount of 16 points; trading volume was 12,877 contracts. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index night futures closed at 8,764 points, up 6 points from the previous close, indicating overall weakness in the Hong Kong market.

Macro Focus: Trump Speech, Fed Chair Nominee, Trade Tensions Rise

Trump will deliver a prime-time speech at 9 PM Eastern Time (10 AM Taiwan Time Thursday). This critical moment coincides with the nearing end of his first year back in the White House, amid declining public support and economic headwinds. The White House has revealed that Trump will emphasize his historic achievements, outline future directions, and possibly preview policy priorities for the new year. The Republican Party is gearing up for the midterm elections in November next year, which typically result in losses for the president’s party in Congress, making Trump’s speech strategically significant.

Regarding the Fed chair nomination, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen(Scott Bessent) stated that this week there will be one or two interviews for the new chair, and Trump is likely to announce his choice in early January. Bessent highly praised the two candidates—White House National Economic Council Director Jared Bernstein and former Fed Governor Waller—calling them “very, very qualified.” According to The Wall Street Journal, these two are indeed Trump’s preferred candidates.

Trade tensions continue to escalate. The US government threatens retaliatory measures against the EU in response to its tax policies targeting US tech companies, naming companies like Accenture, Siemens, and Spotify. The Office of the US Trade Representative said that if the EU continues to weaken US service providers through discriminatory means, the US will have no choice but to use all available tools to counteract. The dispute centers on EU regulation and taxation of tech giants like Google, Meta, and Amazon. The US accuses these measures of violating trade agreement terms. Trump has previously criticized such measures as non-tariff trade barriers and threatened substantial tariffs on implementing countries. Meanwhile, the EU continues to push forward with its digital regulations, recently imposing multi-hundred-million-dollar fines on Apple, Meta, and X platform.

On geopolitical issues, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov stated that Russia is ready to reach a diplomatic agreement with Ukraine, but Kyiv and Moscow still have serious disagreements over territory, security, and Western troop deployments. Russia insists it will not make concessions on issues related to Donbas, Crimea, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, which are outside the scope of discussion. Ryabkov emphasized that Russia will never agree to Western deployment of troops in Ukraine in any form.

Company News: OpenAI Expands Globally, Tesla Robotaxi Outlook Bright

OpenAI has hired former UK Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne to lead the Stargate(Stargate) project worldwide. Osborne will serve as Head of OpenAI for Countries. This project is a $500 billion Stargate plan’s overseas expansion, aiming to build data centers in the US. This move follows Anthropic, which appointed former UK Prime Minister Sunak as an advisor in October. OpenAI began expanding outside the US in April this year, and has so far reached agreements with the UK and UAE, and is in talks with about 50 countries to assist in developing sovereign AI.

Morgan Stanley expects a significant expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet. The bank notes that the unsupervised testing in Austin is a key validation of Tesla’s strategy and one of the most important catalysts recently. Morgan Stanley forecasts that, driven by continuous improvement in safety metrics and the launch of Cybercab in April 2026, the Tesla Robotaxi fleet will grow from a few vehicles now to about 1,000 by 2026.

Economic Outlook: AI Investment Continues to Grow, Global Growth Faces Downward Pressure

OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann stated that the surge in AI investment is driving global economic growth, and expects AI investment to continue increasing with long-term benefits. The OECD has raised growth forecasts for several major economies, including the US, this month, citing technological spending as support amid trade uncertainties. Cormann anticipates that AI-related investments will keep rising in the near future, and in the medium to long term, AI adoption across sectors will boost productivity and bring significant benefits through faster technological diffusion and economic integration.

However, Cormann also warned of downside risks—OECD expects global economic growth to slow to 2.9% next year, below this year’s 3.5%. Trade headwinds may intensify, the impact of tariffs has not yet fully materialized, and other structural economic pressures exist, putting overall global growth prospects under pressure.