BNB weakness deepens, with technical and on-chain indicators worsening simultaneously... Attention to 'triple bearish signals'

BNB, Accelerating Downtrend Likely

Currently, BNB is trading around $848.30, recording a +0.83% change compared to the previous day, but in reality, there is a strong intra-day bearish trend. As of Tuesday, failing to break through the psychological level of $855 has heightened bearish sentiment. Notably, technical signals, on-chain data, and derivatives market indicators are all showing negative signals simultaneously, which are interpreted as signs of structural weakness rather than a simple correction.

RSI Indicator and Momentum Deterioration Send Negative Signals

Looking at the RSI indicator, BNB’s daily RSI has fallen to 39, deeply below the neutral level of 50(. This is a clear sign of increasing selling pressure and suggests further downside potential. The MACD is also reinforcing the bearish signal. The two lines are converging, increasing the likelihood of a bearish crossover, which, if confirmed, could be seen as a “re-acceleration of the downtrend.”

This technical deterioration reflects not just chart numbers but also a shift in market participants’ sentiment. Weakening momentum hints at limited rebound attempts.

) Retail Trading Expansion and Widening Sell-Side Dominance

Derivatives market data complicates the picture further. The increase in CryptoQuant’s Futures Average Order Size### indicates that retail traders, rather than institutional large trades, are increasing small-scale transactions. This raises the possibility of heightened market volatility.

More concerning is that the Futures Taker CVD remains in a sell-side advantage phase. As sell executions on the market price accumulate and surpass buy executions, rebound attempts are likely to be suppressed from above. In this context, technical rebounds may face significant resistance in the short term.

( Funding Rate Turns Negative, Short Positions Dominate

Analyzing CoinGlass’s OI-weighted funding rate, BNB’s funding turned negative on Monday, recording -0.006% as of Tuesday. This indicates that short position holders are paying long position holders, reflecting a market where bearish bets are relatively dominant.

Negative funding rates in the past have been signals of sharp price declines. Traders are reacting more sensitively to this change, increasing caution about downside risks.

) Technical Analysis: $844 as the Last Bastion

On the chart, BNB has been declining from the mid-October downtrend line, facing resistance on December 9, then falling about 5%, retesting the daily support level of $844 on Monday. As of Tuesday, with continued weakness around $853, a trend reversal to the upside is still unlikely.

Risk of Breaking the $844 Daily Close is significant. If this support level breaks, a further decline toward the weekly support of $709.29 could materialize, representing an additional drop of over 16% from current levels.

Rebound Scenario, Facing High Resistance

Conversely, if BNB manages to rebound, the nearest resistance is expected to be the 50-day EMA at $923.14. Breaking and holding above this level could weaken the short-term bearish case. However, given the current deterioration in on-chain and derivatives indicators, a recovery to $923 might face substantial resistance.

In conclusion, the combination of technical deterioration, increased retail trading, and negative funding rates signals a triple bearish outlook for BNB. Whether the $844 support holds will likely be a key turning point for the short-term trend.