Crypto bear market is coming. Can Bitcoin and Ethereum rebound?

Bull-Bear Battle, Cryptocurrency Market Falls into Trouble

November 20th was destined to be unforgettable. The crypto market once again staged a sharp decline—Bitcoin (BTC) dropped over 5%, breaking below $86,000, hitting a seven-month low; Ethereum (ETH) fell even more sharply, down over 6%, breaking the $2,800 level, marking a four-month low. According to Coinglass real-time statistics, in just 24 hours, the number of global traders liquidated reached as high as 230,000, with total liquidation amounts reaching $832 million.

Since the October peak of $126,000, Bitcoin has experienced a net loss of 30%; Ethereum’s decline is even deeper, with a cumulative retracement of 40%. Currently, BTC hovers around $87,600 with volatility, while ETH finds support around $2,950. This downward move in the crypto market has gradually silenced many bullish voices.

What’s happening to the market? A mix of negative news and risks

Analysts point out that the current weakness in crypto assets stems from dual pressures. First, the market has re-evaluated the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut cycle, and the previously optimistic outlook for loose monetary policy has vanished; second, concerns over valuation bubbles in the AI sector have increased, with risk capital shifting to conservative allocations, causing high-volatility assets to suffer.

The analysis team at 10X Research bluntly states: “The crypto market has entered a bear phase.” Evidence supporting this includes—diminished ETF net inflow momentum, continuous selling by long-term holders, and cold retail investor enthusiasm. Every data point tells the same story: market sentiment is quietly changing.

Is there still room for further decline?

Market predictions vary widely. QwQiao, co-founder of Alliance, believes that the crypto market may still need to undergo about a 50% deep correction. Only after those trapped investors are forced to liquidate will the true bottom appear, paving the way for a super cycle revival.

Hex Trust analyst Quaglini is also pessimistic, stating that the correction cycle may not be over. If the stock market continues to deteriorate, Bitcoin could face a risk of retesting the $70,000 support level, and may even break lower in the short term.

Options market participants seem to have anticipated this. Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive.xyz, pointed out that Bitcoin put options expiring on December 26 show a clear concentration of supply, especially around the $80,000 strike price, where large positions have already formed. This reflects a surge in traders’ hedging demand against downside risks.

However, the market is not entirely pessimistic. Tom Lee, Chairman of BitMine, offers a different perspective—such deleveraging cycles typically last about 8 weeks. Currently, we are in the 6th week, and the market may be nearing the end of the correction, with a rebound window possibly not far off.

The Endgame of the Crypto Market Remains Uncertain

In the short term, Bitcoin and Ethereum are facing sideways consolidation, with $80,000 and $2,800 as key support levels. Long-term, opinions are divided—some favor a 50% retracement, while others anticipate a rebound. Investors are becoming more cautious—are they waiting for the bottom to be confirmed, or guarding against further declines? The answer to this question depends on the Fed’s policy shifts and macro risk appetite evolution.