1. Market Overview

Based on Ethereum (ETH) recent 14-day daily K-line data and the past 48 hours of hourly K-line data, the current market is in a stage of oscillation with a slight weakness. The latest daily K-line shows ETH's closing price at $2,948.45, retreating to a two-week low, significantly down from the high of $3,324.14 fourteen days ago. The overall trend has been a continuous correction from the high, with clear signs of a phase adjustment.
In the last two trading days, price ranges have contracted noticeably, with daily amplitude around $8, indicating extremely limited volatility. Trading volume has also shrunk sharply, with the latest single-day volume dropping to 2,107.2 ETH, a steep decline from recent highs, reflecting a growing market wait-and-see sentiment.
Analyzing the hourly K-line over the past 48 hours, ETH price has remained between $2,940 and $2,960, with a peak at $2,962.96 and a low at $2,888.7, showing a lack of momentum for a breakout. Except for some hourly peaks, most of the time volume has been between 2,000 and 7,000 ETH, indicating low short-term capital activity and a short-cycle dominance of bearish sentiment.
Combining K-line performance and volume changes, market sentiment remains cautious, with trading activity at recent lows. Recent market news generally signals short-term pressure but long-term optimism. Institutional data and on-chain indicators show that institutions and large holders are mostly observing, with short-term capital weakening, but growth in stablecoins and commercial payment applications provides medium- to long-term support for Ethereum itself.

2. Technical Analysis
From the 14-day daily K-line data, ETH has been declining from the high of $3,324.14, with multiple dips into the $2,900 region, the lowest at $2,888.7. The current rebound is limited below $2,965, forming a clear downward channel.
The recent two days' closing prices are $2,947.47 and $2,948.45, with very narrow fluctuations, indicating a subdued correction phase.
Key support levels are near the two-week low of $2,888.7 and around $2,900. If these are broken, there is a risk of testing lower levels such as $2,860 and $2,820. Resistance is concentrated at recent daily highs of $2,978.15 and previous highs of $3,020, with further resistance at $3,077.39.
Due to ongoing volume contraction, breaking above resistance in the short term is challenging. The hourly K-line shows no signs of a strong rebound, with prices consolidating around $2,940–$2,960. Multiple attempts to push above $2,960 have faced selling pressure, and buy orders remain below $2,940.
The main fluctuation range is defined by the lowest point at $2,888.7 and the rebound high at $2,962.96.

3. News and Policy Interpretation
Recent news focuses on increased withdrawals from Ethereum staking platforms, on-chain stablecoin B2B and P2B payment volume surges, reflecting actual demand and infrastructure expansion within the ETH ecosystem.
News such as “Bitmine increasing holdings to 4 million ETH” is seen as recognition of ETH's long-term value. However, short-term news generally indicates “ETH repeatedly failing to break $3,000 amid broader market drag,” clearly signaling difficulty in breaking the $3,000 barrier in the near term.
Latest updates include Binance launching the Kyrgyzstani som stablecoin and promoting the expansion of national crypto strategies, which have positive medium- to long-term implications for the Ethereum ecosystem.
However, K-line data shows that after these announcements, ETH has not experienced significant volume or price increases, indicating current funds remain cautious and positive news is being digested with a lag.
Policy-wise, recent statistics show no new major policy events in the past 24 hours, 7 days, or 30 days, having no immediate impact on the market.

4. Analyst Opinions
Overall, analysts believe that in the short term, Ethereum remains in a weak oscillation phase, requiring cautious range trading. Key points include:
- “ETH outlook: Short position: 2940–2980; Stop loss: 3020; Take profit: 2900–2860–2820; Entry flexible, no need to chase the exact point.”
The current price hovers within 2940–2960, close to the suggested range, with the stop loss at 3020 not yet triggered, and take profit within recent lows, making the strategy feasible.
- “Join the crypto channel #ETH ?EP: 2825–2785; TP: 2880–2950–3020–3090; SL: 2745”
ETH has not effectively broken below 2900; short-term targets of 2950/3020 are difficult to reach, leaving room for further action, with a neutral to slightly bearish bias.
- “Contract strategy: Specific product: ETH short; Entry: 2945–2955; Stop loss: 3000; Take profit: 2867”
This aligns closely with current market prices. The price has repeatedly hovered around 2945–2955, with stop loss at 3000 not triggered, but support at 2930–2940 is limited, making the short position logical.
- “ETH rebounds to cost level today, and the logic is that yesterday’s daily K-line closed as a bearish candle, forming a evening star at resistance, so the next move may be further down...”
Recent daily candles remain bearish, with weak rebounds, consistent with this view. Overall, market analysts’ judgments align with current price trends, with the main sentiment being range-bound and slightly weak, with downside risks to watch and a focus on flexible stop-loss and profit-taking.

5. Future Trend Forecast and Trading Suggestions
Based on current K-line trends and mainstream analyst views, ETH is likely to remain in a consolidation range of $2,940–$2,978 in the short term.
If it breaks below $2,940, it will test the previous support zone at $2,900–$2,888. A volume-driven decline could push further down to $2,860 or even $2,820.
Conversely, a move back above $2,965 with increased volume could challenge the $3,020 resistance.
Currently, upward space is limited; short-term strategies should focus on high selling and low buying, with proper stop-loss measures to avoid losses from chasing rallies.
Aggressive traders may consider shorting around 2940–2955 with strict stop-loss at 3000–3020, targeting 2900 or lower, and taking profits quickly if the market moves favorably. A clear break below 2900 could further strengthen the bearish momentum.
Conservative investors are advised to stay on the sidelines, closely monitor support near 2900, and avoid rushing in unless volume confirms a breakout above 2965. If volume increases and price breaks above 2965, consider participating in rebounds with controlled positions.

6. Risk Warning
The current ETH market is in a weak oscillation after a high-level correction. K-line volatility has narrowed, with prices between $2,940 and $2,960, daily amplitude only $8, and recent volume sharply reduced, indicating extremely cautious trading.
In the absence of new funds entering, any sudden event or main force selling pressure could lead to a downward break of the $2,888 low.
Market sentiment remains rigid, and positive news has limited actual impact, making short-term volatility prone to amplification and increasing trading risks.
Investors should manage positions based on support and resistance levels, avoid excessive leverage, and cut losses promptly if prices fall below $2,900 with volume acceleration.
The overall market is in a wait-and-see phase; prudent handling and close attention to support lines and volume changes are recommended.