Australian property cycle will end up like Canada (down 21% in the last 3 years).

How does it happen? Buyers quietly step back as affordability collapses. Higher rates → lower borrowing power → demand thins out → prices grind lower.

The uncomfortable lesson for Australia isn’t “a crash is coming.” It’s that property doesn’t need to crash to deliver poor outcomes.

Sideways prices, elevated holding costs, increased leverage and lost opportunity elsewhere can quietly do just as much damage. Canada may simply be running the playbook a little earlier.