Based on Jintou Data and real-time market signals, the overall cryptocurrency market tonight is slightly neutral to bearish, with no strong driving forces. Meme/Altcoins are more volatile.

1. Core Judgments and Basis

- Macroeconomic level: Federal Reserve official Harker (a voting member next year) stated opposition to recent rate cuts, suggesting maintaining interest rates at least until spring, which weakens expectations of monetary easing and is bearish for high-risk assets.
- Capital and sentiment: The Christmas - New Year window sees thinner liquidity, institutional profit-taking and rebalancing at year-end, lack of incremental funds in the crypto market, with BTC and ETH continuing to decline over the past 7/30 days, and sentiment remains subdued.
- Diversion effect: Gold and silver continue to strengthen, US tech stocks rise, capital flows into traditional safe havens and growth assets, reducing the attractiveness of crypto assets.
- Neutral factors: No sudden regulatory or black swan events; short-term selling pressure marginally weakens; some Meme coins may experience pulse-like volatility due to low liquidity, but overall weakness remains unchanged.

2. Tonight’s Trading Checklist (Short-term)

1. Position: Mainstream coins ≤30%, Meme/Altcoins ≤10%, no new heavy long positions.
2. Stop-loss: Mainstream coins set at 3% - 5%, Meme/Altcoins at 8% - 10%, strictly control single-loss.
3. Rhythm: Only trade oversold small rebounds, quick in and out, no overnight positions, avoid periods of liquidity drought (second half of US trading session).
4. Observation: Until clear volume breakout signals appear, prioritize holding coins/cash, waiting for capital inflow after New Year’s Day.

3. Key Observation Signals

- Bearish triggers: BTC drops below $88,000 with volume; US tech stocks decline; Federal Reserve officials reiterate hawkish comments.
- Bullish triggers: ETF net inflows turn positive; major institutional buy-in announcements; sudden liquidity easing news.