2025-12-31 10:00:33

The key to Bitcoin's 2026 market trend actually lies in global macro policies.

Let's start with the monetary aspect. If major economies like the US and the Eurozone begin to cut interest rates next year, market liquidity will loosen, which is a big positive for risk assets like Bitcoin—more money means more people chasing higher prices. Conversely, if inflation remains high and interest rates stay high, Bitcoin's rebound potential will be limited.

Regulation is also crucial. Cryptocurrency regulations in the US and Europe are expected to become clearer. If new regulations can strike a balance between protecting investors and encouraging innovation, traditional institutions will be more willing to enter the market. Compliance channels like spot ETFs and asset-liability management will open up, solidifying Bitcoin's "digital gold" status.

Don't forget geopolitics and the economy. If the global economy becomes increasingly uncertain and sovereign debt risks rise, safe-haven funds will naturally flow into assets like Bitcoin.

Overall, the probability of Bitcoin trending upward amid volatility in 2026 remains quite high. The halving effect in 2024 is still gradually unfolding, institutional holdings are increasing, and liquidity expectations are improving—these are all positive signals. But don't be overly optimistic; if the global economy sharply declines or regulations suddenly shift, short-term crashes are still possible. However, in the long run, Bitcoin's position as a new asset class is expected to become more stable.

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GasFeeCrier

· 6h ago

Once the expectation of interest rate cuts emerges, liquidity loosens, and retail investors start rushing in. I've seen this routine too many times; the key still depends on how those folks in Europe and America perform.

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ShortingEnthusiast

· 6h ago

The expectation of interest rate cuts is indeed a key factor, but do institutions really dare to enter the market in large numbers? It still seems to depend on the Federal Reserve's attitude. That's correct, but it's still early. Let's wait for actual policy signals to come out. Liquidity easing will definitely boost Bitcoin, but the question is when inflation will truly come under control. The spot ETF has already been approved, but the pace of traditional financial institutions entering the market is much slower than expected. Geopolitical instability indeed benefits safe-haven assets, but don't forget that governments will also take action to regulate. The halving effect is still unfolding, and this judgment remains reliable, but the concern is a sudden regulatory crackdown. Institutional holdings have increased but are still not enough; we need to see data from the first half of 2026 to be sure.

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GateUser-a5fa8bd0

· 7h ago

The expectation of interest rate cuts is indeed a key factor, but do you really think the Federal Reserve will do it? The debt has piled up... The institutional entry has been talked about for a long time, and now there's actually some movement. It feels a bit late. With such a complex geopolitical situation, can Bitcoin really become a safe-haven asset? Sometimes it still seems to follow the US stock market... The 2026 event is too far away; it's better to focus on next year's halving cycle. I'm not optimistic about regulation at all; turning around could happen in just a matter of minutes. I am optimistic about liquidity improvement, but it depends on the Fed actually cutting rates; just talking about it won't do.

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BankruptcyArtist

· 7h ago

I'm convinced about the rate cut expectations, but will institutions really enter the market on a large scale? It still seems to depend on whether the Federal Reserve will slap them in the face or not.

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