#ETF与衍生品 Seeing the heated discussions around Lighter's year-end TGE, my first reaction is—this is just another old story in the cycle.

The ICO boom in 2017, Yield Farming in 2020, the L2 narrative in 2021... Every time, someone uses the "this time is different" story to attract capital, only for the hype to fade and leave chaos behind. Hyperliquid has emerged, not relying on airdrop expectations, but on actual trading volume growth after TGE. This is the most scarce thing I’ve seen in these years.

Now, the problem Lighter faces is quite painful. Its technical architecture is indeed innovative—bridge-less cross-chain, ZK circuits, atomic shared state with Ethereum mainnet—all are solid. But good technology doesn’t guarantee a viable business model. I understand the logic of "using money to buy time," which essentially involves market segmentation—allowing retail investors to enjoy free experiences and shifting costs to market makers and institutions. The question is, once the airdrop ends and incentive funds withdraw, will the 300-millisecond execution delay become a watershed that causes a large user drop-off?

What interests me most is actually the invisible chain behind it—the "iron triangle" formed by Robinhood, Citadel, and Lighter. This isn’t just simple funding backing; it’s a real closed-loop business ecosystem. If Citadel truly makes Lighter its main venue for hedging trades and RWA spot trading, then traditional financial liquidity could really flow into the on-chain space at scale. This is a part of the story that’s more imaginative than the technology itself.

But on the other hand, I’ve seen too many projects inflated by VC resources and "compliance stories." The entry of derivatives into the existing market is already a fact; liquidity won’t appear out of thin air but will be taken from Hyperliquid, Binance, and other sources. Lighter’s goal isn’t to attract a lot of hot money at TGE, but to find reasons to keep traders engaged after the hype subsides.

This time, the market will punish those investors who treat "strong VC backing" and "technological innovation" as guarantees of stock price. The real test has just begun.