Recently, everyone watching the market has felt it—this wave of stablecoin decline is quite painful. The U price has already fallen to 6.82 each, which is 3% lower than the standard exchange rate of 7 yuan. This doesn’t seem like a big event, but if you think about it, it’s quite absurd—half a year ago, U was still at 7.4. In other words, your assets have already shrunk by about 10% without you noticing.

The price of stablecoins is actually linked to two things: first, the official exchange rate of USD to RMB, and second, the premium or discount within the crypto circle itself. The Federal Reserve is currently in a rate-cut cycle, so the dollar is likely to weaken relative to other currencies. From the user’s perspective, this is good news—the purchasing power of RMB has actually increased, allowing you to buy more U with the same amount of money, and thus buy more Bitcoin.

But there’s a detail to note: besides the decline in the USD exchange rate itself, U against RMB is also depreciating additionally, already below the official 1:7 rate. What does this indicate? The current bear market signals in the crypto space are quite obvious. Many RMB-holding users are cashing out U into RMB, causing USDT to be seriously undervalued. At the same time, you’ll notice that the information flow in the crypto circle is sluggish—those KOLs who rely on advertising are now out of work and going back to regular jobs. This is definitely not a bull market signal; instead, it suggests that the inertia of the bear market will continue.

Because of this, we are actually approaching a window for low-price positioning at the end of next year. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin might dip to 60,000 or even 40,000. The bear market doesn’t show a bottom; only when the bottom structure is truly formed can we confirm where the bottom is. Then, it will be enough to follow up with heavy positions to buy the dip. Although there may be some short-term rebounds recently, they won’t change the overall downward trend and might even give us another opportunity to add short positions at high levels.

As for small coins like ZEC and BCH, we previously set up short positions at the top and have made good profits. If they attempt to surge again, there’s still a chance to continue operating. The overall approach is to stay steady, follow the market daily, and wait for that real bottom opportunity.