The performance of Bitcoin in 2026 will mainly depend on how global macro policies evolve. Several key factors are worth paying close attention to.

First, liquidity. If major economies like the US begin a rate-cutting cycle from 2025 to stimulate the economy, and global liquidity turns to easing, this will be a significant positive for risk assets like Bitcoin. However, if inflation remains high and interest rates stay elevated for a long time, the upside potential will naturally be limited. This is the first critical variable.

Regarding regulation, the crypto frameworks in regions like the US and Europe are expected to become clearer. Once rules strike a balance between investor protection and innovation, confidence among traditional institutions will significantly increase. More compliant funds will flow into legitimate channels such as spot ETFs, further solidifying Bitcoin's status as "digital gold."

Additionally, geopolitical and macroeconomic risks play a role. The higher the global uncertainty, the greater the demand for safe-haven assets, which naturally benefits Bitcoin as an asset allocation tool.

Overall, the likelihood of Bitcoin trending upward amid volatility in 2026 is relatively high. The main logic is: improved liquidity environment expectations, continuous deepening participation by institutions (more large companies include BTC in their balance sheets), and the gradual release of the impact from the slowing supply growth after the 2024 halving. However, market volatility will still be high—any macroeconomic data misses or regulatory changes could cause shocks.

The biggest risk is that if global economic growth stalls significantly, risk assets may be sold off across the board, making it difficult for Bitcoin to remain unaffected in the short term. But from a medium- to long-term perspective, its structural opportunity as a new asset class should be able to be consolidated.