#ETF与衍生品 When I saw Hyperliquid drop from 80% to 20%, my first reaction wasn't surprise but familiarity — I've seen this playbook too many times.

Let's start with the surface phenomenon: a 60% plunge in market share is indeed shocking. But the real point I want to remind everyone of is the logic behind the data. Hyperliquid shifting from B2C's "product fanatic" to B2B's "liquidity infrastructure" is a strategic pivot that isn't problematic in itself; the issue lies in the vacuum during the transition being exploited by competitors. Platforms like Lighter, under the banner of "incentive season," attract flows that look impressive in the short term, but this is exactly what I warn against — employment-based liquidity, essentially using airdrops to attract users. Once the TGE incentives end, these flows will become barren fields, like harvested chives after a harvest.

What truly deserves attention are the HIP-3 and Builder Codes combo. This isn't some savior-style turnaround but a shift from "I am all-powerful" to "I build infrastructure so you can be all-powerful." On the surface, it seems passive, but it's actually a stealth move — when third-party developers start creating new markets on HIP-3, liquidity will naturally gather, driven by real demand, not fake prosperity piled up by airdrops.

But there's a trap here: HIP-3 is still in its early days, and the Builder Codes ecosystem hasn't fully formed. During the drop from 80% to 20%, how many people got cut during this "turnaround period"? I've seen too many projects choose aggressive fundraising and frantic updates during strategic shifts, only to accelerate their demise. For Hyperliquid to truly turn things around, the key isn't how advanced the technology is but whether it can survive this quiet period — those trying to make quick money with derivatives ETFs or short-term pump-and-dump schemes are now the most likely to fall into traps.

The secret to lasting on-chain is: don't be blinded by candlestick charts; look at whether the fundamentals are truly being built.