2025-12-31 11:27:10

Honestly, the market in recent years has been characterized by structural rotations, with no significant incremental stories. When a sector starts to rise, there's a sharp sell-off, then hot money shifts to the next sector—mainstream coins, Meme, Layer2, AI concepts—cycle after cycle. With this rhythm, retail investors' ability to sustain profits largely depends on luck.

I've been observing this market for a long time, and less than 30% of retail investors truly survive. The outcomes for most are twofold: either they break even and quickly exit, believing they've made a profit; or they get caught in an endless cycle of losing money and breaking even, with their accounts constantly fluctuating and their mental state collapsing accordingly.

The key is that under this rotation mode, information asymmetry and operational speed become the determinants of life and death, and retail investors happen to be the slowest group.

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ColdWalletGuardian

· 8h ago

Really, I'm living in this endless cycle right now. I want to cash out after breaking even but can't bear to leave, and then I get trapped again when I look back. The information gap really hits hard; we’re always a step behind, others have already bottomed out. A 30% survival rate? Feels like it needs to be discounted even more. This round of movement is like hot potato; whoever is slow dies, retail investors are just that brick. But on the other hand, not playing is even more uncomfortable. Playing with this mindset blows up your mental state, and that’s the real dilemma.

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CryptoGoldmine

· 8h ago

That's correct. The growth curve of the computing power network also verifies this point. Those who truly have ROI are always the ones who master information. ---- Rather than chasing different tracks, it's better to focus on computing power yield ratio; data doesn't lie. ---- The survival rate of retail investors at 30% is probably overestimated. I think it's more like 20%. The rest are busy rearranging their "opportunity layouts." ---- Slow speed isn't the main issue; the key is the lack of a stable investment return cycle plan, relying solely on intuition to operate. ---- As for rotation, in tracks with rapid technological iteration, you can still scrape some gains. Others have already been cut out long ago. ---- My data over the past three months shows that focusing on a single asset type's ROI is actually 40% higher than chasing hot topics. Irony, isn't it? ---- Information gap is real, but the biggest problem for retail investors is actually the lack of risk management concepts. Going all-in on a single shot is routine. ---- Good timing for buying low is indeed real, but the prerequisite is having capital to support it. That's the dilemma most people face.

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GasGuru

· 8h ago

Luck? That's too light a word, it's basically a casino. --- Retail investors can't survive, so be it. Anyway, I don't expect to make money. --- The information gap is truly hopeless. We only find out when the institutions wake up. --- Just rotate, the key is not to get smashed at a high level. --- A 30% survival rate? I think that's an overestimate. --- If your mentality collapses, it collapses. The market is just like that. --- Slow speed is indeed a weakness, but it's not all about luck. --- That part about infinite looping is so true, I feel the same. --- Mainstream coins rotate from Meme to Layer2, looping in a cycle. --- Instead of chasing new tracks, it's better to protect the principal, but I can't bear to do that. --- If I had known earlier, I might as well have just dollar-cost averaged into mining. --- The information gap will be smoothed out; let's wait until the market matures.

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LonelyAnchorman

· 8h ago

Retail investors simply can't win; the information gap is too large. I was just fooled by this round of volatility into being confused. That's right, chasing hot trends is just like gambling; money always flows from retail investors' pockets to institutions. 30% survive or still trembling; most people are stuck in an endless cycle of losing money and breaking even. Slow speed means losing out; by the time I see the information, the market has already moved. This game isn't meant for us. Rather than racing to click, it's better to lie flat; anyway, we can't win, and in the end, luck is what keeps us alive.

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WhaleMinion

· 8h ago

Really, my account is a bloody lesson. I caught that wave of Layer2, thought I was destined to make a comeback, but after one round of memes, I lost most of it again. Information asymmetry is unexplainable. By the time you see the news, the big players have already sold off. We are just the human bagholders. I think surviving 30% is already a discount; most of the people I follow are stuck in an endless loop of stacking. Speed is useless; being quick isn't faster than robots. This game itself is inherently unequal.

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