Will Bitcoin still rise 70% in 2026? Analysts are generally bullish, but expectations have clearly become more rational.

Analysts’ attitudes toward Bitcoin in 2026 have shown an interesting shift: still bullish, but no longer extremely optimistic. According to the latest news, multiple institutions generally expect Bitcoin to reach around $150,000 in 2026, significantly down from the previous target of up to $300,000. This reflects a rational market correction and indicates that institutional expectations for the crypto market are undergoing a realistic adjustment.

Expectation of a Significant Pullback, Rationality as the Main Tone

This table reveals a key piece of information: $150,000 has become the mainstream consensus in the market. The adjustment by Standard Chartered is particularly noteworthy. This institution, which had been repeatedly bullish in early 2024 and 2025, has now cut its target from $300,000 directly in half to $150,000. What is the reason behind this?

Reality Behind the Adjustment in Expectations

According to quick news, the core reason for Standard Chartered’s downward revision is that the institutional buying pressure entering the market via ETFs is lower than previously expected. This indicates a phenomenon—although Bitcoin spot ETFs have been approved, institutional capital inflows have not been as vigorous as analysts imagined.

While Bernstein analysts maintain a $150,000 target, they have also made an important adjustment. They have withdrawn their earlier forecast of reaching a $200,000 high this year, reflecting that recent Bitcoin corrections have indeed changed the market rhythm. However, they still believe Bitcoin is gradually moving away from the historical “four-year cycle” pattern and heading toward a more resilient long-term growth trajectory.

How far is the current price from the target?

Currently, Bitcoin is around $88,800 (as of December 31). From this price to $150,000, there is approximately a 70% growth potential. This number may sound significant, but when viewed within the full 2026 timeline, the annualized growth rate is not extreme.

How Market Conditions Support This Expectation

Although expectations have become more rational, there are still some positive signals in the market:

• Policy Favorability: Hong Kong will fully implement Basel Committee-based crypto regulatory standards on January 1, 2026, providing a clearer regulatory framework for institutional investors. Japan will also lower crypto tax rates to a unified 20%, and such policy adjustments are conducive to long-term investor participation.

• Commodity-like Attributes: According to market analysis, about two-thirds of Bitcoin’s properties are similar to commodities. If gold maintains strength before 2026, historical experience suggests Bitcoin will eventually follow with a catch-up rally. This provides a new supporting logic for Bitcoin.

• Market Structure Signals: On-chain data shows that approximately 33.5% of Bitcoin is currently held in loss positions. This ratio last appeared in October 2023, when Bitcoin was around $26,000. Such a holding structure is often seen as a bottom signal.

Technical Risks Cannot Be Ignored

However, quick news also mentions a risk: if historical pattern repeats, Bitcoin could face a deeper correction, with prices potentially dropping to $40,000–$70,000. This is a technical warning worth noting. Although the probability is relatively low, it indeed reminds investors not to completely ignore extreme risks.

Summary

Analysts’ views on Bitcoin in 2026 have shifted from extreme optimism to rationality. The $150,000 target, although lower than previous expectations, is based on a comprehensive consideration of ETF institutional buying, market structure, policy environment, and other factors. From the current $88,800 to $150,000, there is about 70% growth potential, which is neither a pipe dream nor a certainty.

The key question is whether this expectation can be validated, depending on several factors: the actual strength of institutional capital inflows, the sustainability of policy support, and whether Bitcoin truly breaks free from the historical cycle pattern. Future focus should be on ETF fund flows, regulatory policy implementation, and Bitcoin’s correlation with commodities.