Bull Run Crypto: When Does the Cycle Really Change? From 2021 to 2025

Bitcoin remains firmly above $89K, while the crypto market concludes Q3/2025 with an energy completely different from previous cycles. The question stirring investors: will the 4-year cycle follow its course, or will 2025 mark a structural turning point?

The Bull Run Is No Longer What It Was Four Years Ago

Every crypto cycle tells a different story. In 2021, the market was driven by cultural hype: NFTs, Metaverse, GameFi. Today, in 2025, the narrative has radically changed. It’s no longer “anyone can get rich with a JPEG”; it’s “how do we tokenize the real-world value?”

The difference is not just in trends but in the very structure of the market. In 2021, the bull run resembled a chaotic party — noisy, wild, full of retail speculators. 2025 is more like a financial institution — orderly, professional, with Wall Street and major global financial players sitting at the table. Their presence changes everything: the cycle could potentially last longer and stay more stable.

What Fueled 2021: Culture, Hype, and Narrative

The 2021 cycle was the golden year of cultural innovation in the crypto sector:

• NFTs and Digital Culture: From Bored Apes to CryptoPunks, the digital asset market seemed unstoppable. Anyone could become a millionaire with the right token.

• Play-to-Earn & GameFi: Axie Infinity promised real earnings while playing. Game tokens were genuine income streams, especially in countries with low wages.

• Explosion of Layer 1: Solana, Avalanche, Terra, and BSC directly challenged Ethereum, fueled by high mainnet fees. It was the era of “ETH killers.”

• Memecoin as Social Phenomena: DOGE, SHIBA, FLOKI were more than tokens — they were cultural movements bringing crypto mainstream to the general public.

• Initial Institutional Moves: MicroStrategy, Tesla, and El Salvador bought Bitcoin. Corporates entered the sector, legitimizing the asset.

2021 peaked, then collapsed. But it wasn’t a failure: it laid the groundwork for infrastructure (Layer 1/2), institutional awareness, and global adoption.

What Drives 2025: Real Utility, Financial Integration, and Regulation

Focus has shifted entirely. Today, the three pillars of the 2025 bull run are:

1. Tokenization of RWA (Real-World Assets)

Real-world assets — real estate, bonds, art, infrastructure — are being transformed into highly liquid, transparent tokens. Projections suggest the RWA market could reach $16 trillion by 2030. It’s no longer pure speculation; it’s traditional finance embracing blockchain.

2. AI Integrated with Crypto (DeFAI)

Autonomous trading bots, data protocols powered by AI, predictive systems — the combination of AI and blockchain is creating a new class of applications. Artificial intelligence does not replace crypto value; it amplifies it.

3. Legal Financial Infrastructure

• Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs: Now anyone — pension funds, insurers, companies — can invest in crypto as easily as traditional stocks.

• Stablecoins as Global Backbone: USDT and USDC have become the “dollar on the blockchain” — faster and cheaper than traditional banks. In 2025, their market cap has risen from $260 milliards to $278 milliards in just a few months (+7%).

• DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure): Decentralized 5G networks, tokenized energy markets, real-world data on-chain — blockchain is no longer just digital.

4. Memecoin 2.0 and InfoFi

Unlike 2021, memecoins of 2025 are not just funny images. Platforms like Pump.fun and LetsBONK gamify token launches. Memecoins are fueled by social trends, information flows, and community narratives — turning attention into liquidity. They have become the fastest liquidity engine for small investors.

Radical Shift: From Speculation to Financial Integration

If 2021 was dominated by “I want to get rich quickly,” 2025 reflects a more mature mindset: “I want to understand how blockchain transforms global finance.”

In 2021, institutions were cautious and retail was unstable. Today, the regulatory landscape has completely changed.

Regulation: From Uncertainty to Clarity

In 2021, under SEC Chair Gary Gensler, almost everything was considered a security. Legal battles stifled growth. Institutions stayed away; retail was terrified.

By 2025:

• Trump Presidency & Pro-Crypto Sentiment: Donald Trump’s election and Gensler’s resignation have radically improved sentiment. New pro-crypto laws are being implemented. The Trump family actively participates in the ecosystem.

• GENESIS ACT (July 18, 2025): The first federal law clearly defining “payment stablecoins.” They must be backed 1:1 by USD or secure assets, with public reserves and oversight. Within a month, the stablecoin market cap grew by 7%.

• Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (March 6, 2025): Confiscated Bitcoin is no longer sold but held as part of the US strategic reserves — like gold. States like New Hampshire and Texas are creating their own Bitcoin reserves.

These steps transform Bitcoin and stablecoins from “speculative assets” to “legitimate reserves and payment tools.” Crypto moves out of the wild west into the traditional financial system.

Is the 4-Year Cycle Still Valid?

For years, crypto followed the strict 4-year cycle tied to Bitcoin halving. Many investors assumed 2025 would be the last year before a brutal crash.

But high-level analysts like Raoul Pal (ex-Goldman Sachs hedge fund manager, co-founder of Real Vision) suggest this time could be different. Bitcoin might shift to a cycle of 5 years or more.

If true, the current bull run could extend months or years longer than expected.

Two scenarios emerge:

Scenario 1 — The 4-Year Cycle Repeats: The market has only a short window left for explosive gains before a sharp correction. Strategy: lock in profits, reduce risk, rebalance the portfolio.

Scenario 2 — Extended to 5+ Years: This bull run will last much longer, bringing new waves of opportunity. But overconfidence might cause you to miss the right moment to take profits.

The real lesson: You cannot control the market cycle, but you can control your risk. If you experience constant stress, you are probably overexposed. Take some profits, ease the pressure, rebalance.

The Cycle Is a Repeating Ring

All assets follow cycles — whether 4 years, 5 years, or 10 years. Cryptos are no exception. Over time, they will synchronize with the broader rhythm of global financial markets: nothing rises forever, nothing falls forever.

Those who learn to ride the cycles — taking profits at peaks and accumulating at lows — will build lasting wealth.

The question is not “when will this cycle end?” but rather “are you positioned to capitalize on the next cycle?”

Content provided for educational purposes. Always do your own research, understand the risks associated with crypto investments, and only invest what you can afford to lose.