India's central bank's latest assessment: Bank bad debts are improving, but NBFC risks are heating up

2025-12-31 12:00:14

【ChainNews】There are several noteworthy signals in the latest Financial Stability Report released by the Reserve Bank of India. First, regarding the banking system, the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio is expected to gradually improve from the current 2.1% to around 1.9% by the fiscal year 2026-27. That sounds promising, but the situation on the other side is more complex — risks in non-bank financial institutions (NBFCs) are rising, with bad debt ratios projected to jump from 2.3% to 2.9%.

Even more interesting is the central bank’s stance on stablecoins. The report explicitly reiterates concerns about the risks of stablecoins, stating that such assets pose a threat to macrofinancial stability. The central bank’s advice is clear: countries should prioritize developing their own central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) to maintain financial order. The underlying logic is straightforward — rather than letting private stablecoins run wild, it’s better to keep the control in their hands. While different countries have varying attitudes, this regulatory approach is becoming a mainstream consensus.

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GasFeeVictim

· 4h ago

Banks look good on paper but NBFCs are exploding; the gap is widening... The Reserve Bank of India’s approach is also brilliant. Instead of letting stablecoins run wild, it’s better to launch its own CBDC—classic "I take control" mindset.

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DaoGovernanceOfficer

· 4h ago

empirically speaking, the RBI's basically admitting they can't control stablecoins so they're doubling down on CBDC theater... classic centralized playbook tbh. the NBFC deterioration tho? that's the real red flag nobody's talking about

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MelonField

· 4h ago

Banking improves, NBFCs collapse, is the Reserve Bank of India about to shift the blame to stablecoins again? --- With CBDC coming, stablecoins will be finished. Isn't this the standard operation for countries? --- 2.9% bad debt, NBFCs really can't hold on... The Indian financial system is bubbling beneath the surface. --- The Reserve Bank's rhetoric about controlling the narrative has worn me out. Basically, they want to ban stablecoins. --- The banking system remains stable, but risks are rising for NBFCs. This contrast is interesting... Where is all the money flowing? --- Stablecoins are being targeted repeatedly by the central bank, making the Web3 path even harder to pursue in India. --- Suppressing stablecoins and pushing CBDC, all central banks' scripts are the same—it's just a matter of who executes it more ruthlessly.

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LiquidityOracle

· 4h ago

Bank recovery, NBFC defaults, the Reserve Bank of India’s move is really a masterstroke played poorly. Speaking of which, the central bank is still afraid of stablecoins. Instead of banning them, wouldn’t issuing its own CBDC be more stable? Just a power game. NBFC bad debt at 2.9%, that’s the real hidden danger. The improvements in banks are nothing. The big game of central bank digital currencies, countries are all playing it. Stablecoins will eventually be sidelined. The complexity of India’s financial system is truly remarkable… When banks stabilize, the risk shifts to NBFCs.

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PensionDestroyer

· 4h ago

Bank bad debts decrease, NBFC risks rise—this pace is quite interesting... The central bank is paving the way for CBDC, and stablecoins are probably going to be dealt with. Speaking of India’s approach, other countries are also learning from it. Concentration of power really is the trend. With the risk of NBFC爆雷 so high, how can ordinary people avoid it? The central bank digital currency is coming; can private stablecoins still survive? India’s central bank is playing a tough hand; stablecoins are really becoming history. Forget it, in the end, the central bank’s word is law. We players can just lie flat. NBFC’s bad debt rate has jumped directly to 2.9%, that number is a bit scary... The crackdown on stablecoins has been obvious for a while. India’s central bank attitude is so tough; will other countries follow suit and ban them? Rather than relying on private stablecoins, it’s better to wait for CBDC to be implemented... The central bank’s control tactics are really top-notch.

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MemeCoinSavant

· 4h ago

according to my peer-reviewed statistical analysis of indian nbfc credit derivatives, the memetic coefficient suggests this is actually extremely bearish for stablecoins ngl

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